Gold prices remained cautiously stable in both local and global markets during Monday's trading, supported by a steady U.S. dollar following a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report for July. The disappointing data revived market expectations for an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in its upcoming September meeting.
Compared to Saturday’s closing, gold prices showed little change. In the local market, 21-karat gold held at EGP 4,600 per gram, while globally, the ounce stood at $3,363.
Other gold rates in Egypt were as follows:
24-karat: EGP 5,257 per gram
18-karat: EGP 3,943 per gram
14-karat: EGP 3,067 per gram
Gold Pound (8 grams, 21k): EGP 36,800
Weekly Performance: Local Losses vs. Global Gains
Domestically, gold lost about 0.6% over the past week, with 21-karat prices falling from EGP 4,630 to EGP 4,600. On the global front, gold gained 0.8%, rising from $3,337 to $3,363 per ounce, supported by weak U.S. labor data and a declining dollar.
Disappointing Jobs Report Lends Support to Gold
The July U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed the economy added only 73,000 jobs, far below expectations of 110,000 — marking the weakest print this year. Moreover, May and June figures were revised downward by a combined 258,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%.
As a result, market expectations for a September rate cut surged. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 77% probability of a cut, up from 37% before the report, while Reuters reports that markets are now pricing in a 90% chance of policy easing next month.
Political Pressure Boosts Gold, Unsettles Markets
Political developments in Washington added a layer of uncertainty. On Friday, President Donald Trump dismissed BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, accusing her of falsifying job data—without providing evidence. The move raised widespread concern among economists about the independence of U.S. institutions and the reliability of official economic data.
Additionally, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler announced her early resignation, effective August 8. The vacancy opens the door for President Trump to increase his influence over the Federal Reserve by appointing successors who may shape monetary policy—especially as Jerome Powell’s term nears its end.
Bond Yields Rebound as Gold Momentum Fades
Despite the renewed dovish outlook, rising U.S. Treasury yields capped gold's upside momentum. The 10-year yield climbed to 4.23%, while the 30-year reached 4.83%, rebounding from sharp declines last Friday.
Citigroup Revises Forecast: Gold Could Reach $3,600
In a related development, Citigroup revised its gold outlook, now forecasting prices to trade between $3,300 and $3,600 per ounce in Q3 2025. The revision comes amid escalating economic pressures and heightened U.S. tariff policies, enhancing gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
This marks a significant shift from Citi’s June forecast, which projected gold to fall below $3,000. The bank’s revised view now aligns with that of Goldman Sachs and Fidelity International, both of which expect current macro conditions to support further gains in gold.
Key Data Releases to Watch This Week
While the U.S. calendar lacks major economic reports this week, markets will be watching several second-tier indicators and speeches from Fed officials, including:
Tuesday: U.S. Services PMI (ISM & S&P Global)
Wednesday: 10-year U.S. Treasury auction
Thursday: Bank of England monetary policy decision, weekly U.S. jobless claims
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