Gold prices in local markets declined by 0.6% over the past week, while global spot prices fell by 0.4%, as markets await the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates at its upcoming meeting this month, according to a report by the “Ai Sagha” gold and jewelry trading platform.
Saeed Embaby, the platform’s CEO, stated that local gold prices dropped by EGP 35 during the week, with 21-karat gold opening at EGP 5,650 per gram and closing at EGP 5,615. Meanwhile, global spot prices fell by $17, opening at $4,216 per ounce and closing at $4,199.
The price of 24-karat gold reached EGP 6,417, while 18-karat gold stood at EGP 4,813, and the gold pound stabilized at EGP 44,920.
Despite the slight decline, prices have maintained a large portion of their recent gains, supported by mounting expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, which is helping curb selling pressure on gold.
As 2026 approaches, gold continues to reinforce its upward trajectory, with major financial institutions increasingly convinced that the metal is positioned for another major surge to unprecedented record levels.
U.S. Economic Developments and Fed Expectations
Recent data shows a gradual slowdown in inflation in the United States. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.2% in September month-on-month, bringing the annual rate to 2.8%. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment improved to 53.3 points, according to the University of Michigan, while one-year inflation expectations fell from 4.5% to 4.1%, and five-year expectations dropped from 3.4% to 3.2%.
Based on these indicators, the FedWatch tool currently signals an 87% probability of a 25 bps rate cut next week, which boosts gold’s appeal as an investment due to declining real bond yields.
Global Monetary Policy Outlook
Markets have witnessed wide swings in U.S. rate expectations in recent weeks, with the return of monetary easing to the forefront amid cooling inflation and a weakening labor market.
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 5.25%, while signaling further accommodative policy ahead—supporting global gold demand.
China is also expected to sustain loose monetary policy, focusing on manufacturing, technology and consumer spending, which may lift global demand for precious metals.
Geopolitical Risks
Ongoing geopolitical tensions—whether in the Middle East or in U.S.–China relations—continue to bolster safe-haven demand for gold, particularly amid uncertainty surrounding interest rate trajectories and global monetary policy.
Gold remains supported by key factors including expected monetary easing, rising global demand for commodities, and persistent economic uncertainty.
Market Outlook: What’s Next?
Brokerage firm Ventura expects a combination of central bank buying, inflation pressure, widening U.S. deficits, and economic concerns to push gold prices into a range of $4,600–$4,800 per ounce during 2026.
The firm also anticipates that an estimated 75 bps worth of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 will bolster investment demand and sustain the ongoing bull market.
Ventura believes the bullish cycle remains “far from over,” with institutional investors increasingly seeking gold as a hedge, followed by strong participation from retail investors and speculators.
Deutsche Bank Estimates
Deutsche Bank raised its 2026 gold forecast to $4,450 per ounce, up from a previous estimate of $4,000, expecting prices to trade between $3,950 and $4,950 next year, with potential for the upper bound to exceed current futures pricing by 14%.
The bank maintained its 2027 forecast at $5,150, describing it as a midpoint between a normalized market scenario and one characterized by prolonged elevated official-sector demand.
Morgan Stanley Outlook
Morgan Stanley expects gold to reach $4,500 per ounce by mid-2026, supported by ETF inflows and ongoing central bank purchases amid a cloudy global economic outlook.
However, the bank warned of potential downside risks stemming from market volatility or possible central-bank gold sales, which could weigh on prices.
Investment Recommendations
HDFC Securities noted that gold’s investment appeal has strengthened due to inflation, expected rate cuts, and diminishing confidence in fiat currencies, recommending that investors allocate 5–10% of their portfolios to gold and silver, with the option to increase exposure based on risk appetite.
Global Market: Strong Performance and Structural Shifts
Gold climbed to $4,299, supported by expectations of a December U.S. rate cut, according to Ventura, which highlighted nine consecutive quarters of price gains—one of the longest rallies in decades.
The firm argues that this trend reflects a systemic erosion in fiat currency value, with gold now the second most important reserve asset for global central banks.
India: A Hotter Market
In India, local prices trade around 15% higher than in Dubai due to import duties and a weak rupee, fueling increased informal cross-border bullion flows.
Correction and Consolidation
After hitting a peak of $4,398 on October 20, 2025, gold corrected by 11% to $3,891 before rebounding to $4,299 in December. The rebound has been supported by expectations of a rate cut and a weaker dollar.
Ventura sees the market in a consolidation phase rather than reversal, with mild profit-taking and risk repricing ahead of key policy decisions.
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