Gold Falls Locally and Globally Amid White House Tariff Uncertainty and U.S. Inflation Data Watch

Gold prices in both local and global markets saw a notable decline on Monday, as investors awaited a potential move from the White House regarding possible tariffs on gold bullion. Market focus also shifted toward U.S. inflation data due later this week, which could determine the future path of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

In local markets, the price of 21-karat gold fell by around EGP 40 compared to Saturday’s close, settling at EGP 4,580 per gram. Globally, spot gold lost about $42 to trade at $3,355 per ounce. The price of 24-karat gold stood at EGP 5,234 per gram, 18-karat gold at EGP 3,926, and 14-karat gold at EGP 3,054, while the gold pound coin was valued at EGP 36,640.

Last week, gold prices rose 0.4% locally, with the 21-karat price up EGP 20 from EGP 4,600 to EGP 4,620, while on the global market the metal gained 1%, moving from $3,363 to $3,397 per ounce.

The latest pullback comes amid selling pressure, as attention turns to the U.S. July Consumer Price Index (CPI), expected to show a 0.3% monthly increase in core inflation, pushing the annual rate to 3%—above the Fed’s 2% target.

Markets are also awaiting an executive order promised by the White House to clarify its stance on potential bullion tariffs. Analysts say the CPI report will reveal whether the inflationary pressures from tariffs are temporary or persistent, especially after June data showed a rise in prices for many imported goods. Economists expect headline inflation to rise 2.8% year-on-year and core CPI—excluding volatile food and energy prices—to increase 3.0%.

Any upside inflation surprises could prompt investors to reassess bets on a September rate cut, despite last week’s weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report, which boosted market expectations to nearly 90% for a 25-basis-point rate reduction, with at least one more cut projected before year-end.

Comments from Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem—indicating openness to policy easing—also weighed on the dollar and supported precious metals.

Separately, Reuters reported that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is seeking a successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, with speculation centering on veteran advisers and former regional Fed presidents, as political pressure from President Donald Trump to cut rates continues.

Attention is also on the upcoming summit between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday, where discussions will focus on ending the war in Ukraine. The deadline for new U.S. tariffs on China, initially set for Tuesday, is widely expected to be extended.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in an 88% chance of a Fed funds rate cut to the 4.00%-4.25% range. While gold typically holds its appeal in high-inflation environments, a prolonged restrictive Fed policy stance could weigh on its performance in the medium term.