Gold edges lower locally and globally as markets await key U.S. data this week

Gold prices saw slight downward movement in both the local market and the global exchange during Monday’s trading, amid broad anticipation of several U.S. economic indicators scheduled for release this week. Investors are closely watching these data points to gauge the Federal Reserve’s next steps regarding monetary policy, according to a report by the “i Sagha” gold and jewelry trading platform.

Said Embabi, the platform’s CEO, stated that domestic gold prices fell by around 20 EGP during today’s session compared to the end of last week’s trading, with 21-karat gold registering 5,435 EGP per gram. Meanwhile, the ounce slipped by about $7 to reach $4,079.

He added that 24-karat gold reached 6,211 EGP, while 18-karat stood at 4,659 EGP, and the gold pound stabilized at 43,480 EGP.

Last week saw a relatively steeper decline, with local prices dropping around 110 EGP, while the ounce lost roughly $85, pressured by fading expectations of a U.S. interest-rate cut.

Market bets on another rate cut weakened after several members of the Federal Open Market Committee signaled skepticism about moving toward further monetary easing — a stance that strengthened the dollar and reduced the allure of gold.

This outlook intensified amid the ongoing impact of the United States’ longest-ever government shutdown, which continues to weigh on economic activity while keeping the possibility of policy easing on the table — a factor that provides some support to gold as a safe-haven asset.

Investors are now awaiting Wednesday’s release of the Fed’s meeting minutes, followed by Thursday’s non-farm payrolls report — two key events expected to shape near-term momentum for both the dollar and commodities. Market behavior suggests that investors anticipate signs of economic cooling, which could prompt the Fed to reconsider the pace of its monetary tightening.

The probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December fell below 50% last week, adding pressure on non-yielding gold. The dollar also saw a slight rise at the start of the week as markets brace for a set of influential economic indicators.

On a broader scale, Joseph Cavatoni, Chief Market Strategist at the World Gold Council, believes that gold’s position as a safe haven remains solid, supported by structural factors that extend beyond the effects of U.S.–China trade negotiations.

He explained that gold’s strategic value is anchored in deeper drivers such as rising global debt levels, unconventional monetary policies, and institutional investors’ continued efforts to diversify portfolios with stable assets.

Cavatoni added that short-term price fluctuations are a natural part of market dynamics, while fundamental forces — from inflation risks to uncertain economic policies — remain the true drivers of long-term demand. He emphasized that central banks have reinforced this trend through consistent increases in gold purchases over recent years.

Regionally, particularly in the Gulf, the current environment — marked by high global debt and ongoing economic uncertainty — strengthens the case for holding safe assets. Cavatoni noted that short-term price volatility should be viewed as an opportunity to rebalance portfolios and enhance long-term gold positioning.