Global Ounce Drops 2.5%, Ending Monthly Winning Streak

Gold prices in local markets recorded a slight increase during Saturday's trading, coinciding with the global stock market holiday. This follows a global decline in the gold ounce, which saw a weekly loss of approximately 2.5%, ending a four-week consecutive rally. This performance comes amid escalating fears of inflationary pressures resulting from high oil prices, which bolstered the dollar and pushed bond yields higher, according to the "Marsad Al Dahab" report for economic studies.

Dr. Walid Farouk, a researcher in gold and jewelry affairs and director of the "Marsad Al Dahab", stated that local gold prices rose by about 10 EGP during today's trading compared to yesterday's close. The 21-karat gold gram reached approximately 7,000 EGP, while the global ounce fell by about $122 during the week's trading to settle at $4,710, according to World Gold Council data.

He added that the price of 24-karat gold reached 8,000 EGP, 18-karat reached 6,000 EGP, and the gold coin (Gold Pound) reached 56,000 EGP. He also noted that the price gap between local and global gold prices narrowed to about 23 EGP during Saturday's trading.

According to "Marsad Al Dahab" data, gold prices in the Egyptian market rose by about 20 EGP during Friday's trading. The 21-karat gold gram opened at 6,970 EGP and closed at 6,990 EGP, while the global ounce rose by about $15, opening at $4,695 and closing at $4,710.

Global Fluctuations and Geopolitical Tensions

Gold prices in both local and global markets experienced sharp volatility throughout the week, driven by rising uncertainty linked to geopolitical tensions. The precious metal faced strong selling pressure, particularly during Tuesday's session, which saw the largest drop—falling more than 2% to a weekly low near $4,672 per ounce. It partially recovered by the end of the week, stabilizing above the $4,700 level, supported by optimism surrounding news of resumed talks between Iran and the United States.

Despite these fluctuations, gold maintains its status as a preferred safe haven in 2026 amidst ongoing global market turmoil and inflationary pressures. Developments in the Middle East supported investor sentiment, specifically diplomatic moves including Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's visit to Pakistan, alongside U.S. officials heading for talks with Tehran.

Conversely, a decline in oil prices—with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropping by about 3.5%—helped ease fears of a new inflationary wave, influencing monetary policy expectations. Furthermore, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell to 4.31%, signaling market anticipation for potential future monetary easing, which in turn pressured the dollar, causing its index to drop to 98.57 points.

Economic Indicators and Future Outlook

At the same time, University of Michigan data showed that U.S. consumer confidence fell to 49.8 points in April—the lowest level since 1978—while short- and long-term inflation expectations rose, reflecting growing pessimism regarding economic prospects.

Market pricing suggests the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged for an extended period, with the first potential cut delayed until 2027. Investors are looking forward to a package of critical data next week, including the Fed’s interest rate decision, GDP data, durable goods, and labor market reports.

Regarding the general trend, although gold has retreated from its historical peak recorded in January, prices remain historically high, supported by strong global demand. Recent analyses indicate a widening gap between asset valuations and underlying risks, particularly in equity and sovereign debt markets, alongside ongoing geopolitical risks that are not yet fully priced in.

In this context, gold is increasingly viewed not just as a traditional hedging tool, but as a means of protection against broader structural risks in the global financial system. This is evident in central bank behavior; the People's Bank of China continued to strengthen its gold purchases, utilizing price dips as buying opportunities.

In contrast, some institutions continue to liquidate parts of their reserves. The State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) emerged as one of the largest sellers, reducing its holdings by approximately 21.9 tons during the first quarter to reach 178.1 tons, compared to a previous 200 tons, despite the continued year-on-year growth of its total holdings.