Gold prices saw a slight decline in both local and global markets during Thursday’s trading session, following the announcement of a ceasefire agreement between the occupying entity and Hamas. However, continued geopolitical and economic uncertainty, along with expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, kept investor sentiment toward the precious metal positive, according to a report by iSagha, a platform specializing in gold and jewelry trading.
Local Market Performance
Saeed Embabi, CEO of iSagha, said that local gold prices fell by about EGP 5 compared to Wednesday’s closing, with 21-karat gold registering EGP 5,440 per gram, while the global ounce stabilized at $4,045 after touching a record high of $4,060 earlier in the session.
He added that 24-karat gold recorded EGP 6,217, 18-karat stood at EGP 4,663, and 14-karat at EGP 3,627, while the gold pound coin remained stable at EGP 43,520.
Embabi noted that prices had risen sharply on Wednesday by about EGP 120, as 21-karat gold opened at EGP 5,325 and closed at EGP 5,445, while the global ounce jumped from $3,980 to $4,045, after hitting an all-time high of $4,060.
Gold Holds Above $4,000 as Markets Digest Gaza Truce
Globally, spot gold remained above the $4,000 mark on Thursday as investors assessed the Gaza ceasefire deal, while expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts continued to support demand for the metal.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting revealed that most policymakers agreed further monetary easing might be necessary to balance risks to the labor market amid slowing economic growth.
Gold had posted strong gains earlier this week, buoyed by safe-haven demand as the U.S. government shutdown entered its second week, coupled with growing bets on rate cuts.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a 93% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in October and a 79% chance of another in December, reflecting strong confidence that the Fed will prioritize economic growth over inflation control.
Dollar Weakness Supports Non-Yielding Assets
The U.S. dollar index slipped for the third consecutive session, offering additional support to non-yielding assets such as gold. Investors are now awaiting remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which could provide further clues about the pace of monetary easing.
While the near-term trend points to relative stability, the broader outlook for gold and silver remains positive, underpinned by rate-cut expectations and persistent global uncertainty. Analysts expect gold to trade within a $3,980–$4,100 per ounce range, with strong technical support around $4,000.
U.S. Policy and Safe-Haven Flows Continue to Drive the Market
Analysts believe the yellow metal remains in a strong upward trend, supported by fundamental drivers, as traders anticipate two additional 25-basis-point cuts from the Fed in October and December, following the start of the easing cycle in September.
The U.S. government shutdown is also adding fiscal pressure, prompting investors to hedge through gold holdings. Despite the dollar’s recent rise to its highest level since late August, it failed to dampen bullish momentum in the gold market, as investors shrugged off technical overbought signals.
Trump Announces Ceasefire Between Israel and Hamas
U.S. President Donald Trump announced that a ceasefire and hostage-exchange deal had been reached between Israel and Hamas, marking the first phase of his plan to end the Gaza war.
Institutional Inflows and Central Bank Buying Bolster Gold
The World Gold Council reported that global gold ETF investments reached $64 billion year-to-date, with September recording the largest monthly inflow in three years, signaling accelerating demand for hedging amid market turbulence.
At the same time, central banks added around 15 tonnes to their reserves in August, led by the National Bank of Kazakhstan, as part of a broader effort to diversify away from the U.S. dollar.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) also revealed that it increased its gold reserves for the 11th consecutive month in September, reaching 74.06 million ounces, valued at $283.29 billion, up from $253.84 billion in August — reaffirming China’s strategic diversification policy as the world’s second-largest economy.
2025: A Year of Record Gains and Growing Optimism
According to the iSagha report, gold prices have risen about 54% since the start of the year, supported by central bank purchases, growing investment demand, and a weaker dollar.
Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 gold forecast from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce, citing ongoing institutional inflows and sustained central bank demand.
Analysts believe that a combination of factors — including the U.S. government shutdown, declining confidence in government bonds, and rising global political uncertainty — provides a perfect environment for gold to break toward $5,000 per ounce in the coming months if current conditions persist.
Egyptian Market Outlook
Domestically, Egypt’s gold market continues to track global price movements and dollar fluctuations. iSagha experts expect 21-karat gold to trade within a range of EGP 5,400–5,500 this week, with potential for new record highs if the global ounce breaks above $4,100.
The report concludes:
“Gold remains the most trusted safe-haven asset amid global uncertainty, and any temporary decline is merely a pause in a long-term upward journey.”
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