Former US State Department Advisor to See: Russia-Ukraine War Will End on This Date

Sada Elbalad English website interviewed Jonathan Wachtel, former US State Department Adviser, and asked him many questions and he answered as follows:

- What will the future of US-Iranian relations look like during Trump's term?

US-Iranian relations have been very bad since the beginning of the 1979 revolution that overthrew the Shah and paved the way for the Ayatollah to take power, leading to the emergence of an authoritarian religious regime that to this day affects Central Asia, the Caucasus, the Middle East, Latin America, and now even the war between Russia and Ukraine. Donald Trump, like most Americans, watched the drama of the hostage-taking at the US embassy in Tehran, the fall of Jimmy Carter's presidency, and Ronald Reagan's presidency, which witnessed the release of the hostages and the course of US foreign policy that led to a massive geopolitical change, including the opening of the Iron Curtain. The first Trump administration was very tough on the Iranian regime, which was responsible for perpetuating the “Death to America” ideology that led to the deaths of dozens of American soldiers in Iraq, suppressing its own people, and, through the Shiite proxy militia program led by the late Qassem Soleimani, whose assassination Trump authorized, imposing its influence in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Gaza. The new Trump administration sees the Iranian regime in the same light and comes into office at a time when Iran has suffered dramatic setbacks—with Hezbollah’s political influence and military control of Lebanon diminished, Hamas and Islamic Jihad lacking the military infrastructure to confront Israel as they once did, and its ally Bashar al-Assad ousted—so the previous approach of maximum pressure on Tehran is not only unlikely but will also try to keep the regime in a corner. While there is talk of accommodating the Iranian government if it convincingly denies its nuclear program, ends its support for proxy forces around the world, and plays a constructive role in seeking peace and stability in the Middle East, past behavior is an indicator of future behavior, making the prospects of such an immediate shift in Iran’s position seem remote. Deepening military and economic ties between Iran and Russia further complicate future U.S.-Iran relations.

- Will we see progress on the Iran nuclear deal, or will Trump continue on the same path and oppose the nuclear deal?

The current trajectory of Iranian policy, including its decision to deepen its strategic alliance with Russia, its continued support for proxies such as the Houthis in Yemen who continue to harass shipping in the Gulf, its interference in Iraq, and so on, and Iran’s continued enrichment of uranium to near weapons-grade levels, do not contribute to any desire on the part of the Trump administration to suddenly embrace the idea of a nuclear deal. Maybe something will happen if Iran changes its behavior significantly, but there is no sign of that or any initiative by the Trump administration to pursue a nuclear deal with the Iranian regime.

**What will US-Russia relations look like under Trump?**

The painful war in Ukraine began on February 22, 2022, so we have already reached a point of complete exhaustion on both sides. This story, while a story of unspeakable tragedy for many people caught up in the brutality of war, has brought Russian and Ukrainian leaders to a place where it is time for a peaceful settlement of the conflict. If the war ends, the intensity of hostility between the United States and Russia will diminish. Trump and Putin have a good relationship, with Trump himself describing the relationship as “very good.” Putin has tended not to say anything hostile about Trump either. He has also enjoyed Trump’s challenges to NATO.

Will we see an end to the Russia-Ukraine war?

Putin and Zelensky are making statements suggesting that the time may be ripe for peace after this exhausting and costly experience in a war that began nearly three years ago. How quickly the war ends depends on the concessions that both sides make. The Trump administration could use sanctions on Russia and the suspension of arms support to Ukraine to persuade it to sit down and settle the conflict. Neither side will be happy with the outcome, but the war cannot continue indefinitely. For these reasons, I expect the war to end in 2025. How early depends on many factors, including access to weapons and troops for both sides in the conflict, pressure from the United States, NATO, major players in the European Union, Iran, China, and so on.

**What are the biggest concerns that Zelensky will face during the Trump administration?**

President Trump’s stance on Ukraine and NATO, as well as the possibility that the United States will curtail military support. The relationship between Trump and Putin, which is not as hostile as the relationship between Biden and Trump, should also worry Zelensky.