Fitch: Suez Canal Trade Poised for Gradual Recovery After Gaza Ceasefire

Global shipping through the Suez Canal is expected to stage a gradual recovery in the second half of the 2025/2026 fiscal year, following the ceasefire in Gaza, according to international credit rating agency Fitch. 

The agency projects that vessel traffic through the strategic waterway will return to pre-war levels during the 2026/2027 fiscal year, marking a key turning point for global maritime trade.

The outlook aligns with optimistic forecasts from the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), which has signaled a steady improvement in canal revenues over the coming years. The authority expects revenues to strengthen during the 2025/2026 fiscal year, rising to an estimated $8 billion in 2026/2027 and $10 billion in 2027/2028, reflecting the anticipated normalization of shipping routes and renewed confidence among major carriers.

Momentum behind the recovery has been reinforced by the announcement from global shipping giant Maersk, which confirmed that its vessels will resume transits through the Suez Canal starting in December 2025. The group’s chief executive described the canal as a cornerstone of Maersk’s maritime operations, emphasizing that it “has always been, remains, and will continue to be a central pillar of global shipping.”

Industry observers view Maersk’s decision as a bellwether for the wider market. The return of one of the world’s largest shipping lines is expected to encourage other carriers to follow suit, accelerating the restoration of traffic through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal after months of disruption.

Together, Fitch’s projections, the SCA’s revenue estimates, and Maersk’s planned return point to a phased but decisive rebound for one of the world’s most critical trade corridors, underscoring the canal’s enduring strategic importance to global commerce despite recent geopolitical shocks.