John Luca, an economic expert, said that gold prices have set a new record by surpassing the $4,500-per-ounce level for the first time during Asian trading, driven by rising investor bets on continued U.S. interest rate cuts next year, alongside escalating global geopolitical tensions.
Luca explained that the precious metal climbed to $4,526 per ounce—its highest level on record—extending a powerful rally that has delivered gains of more than 70% since the beginning of 2025, marking one of the strongest performance periods in gold’s history.
He noted that this surge reflects growing optimism in the markets that the U.S. Federal Reserve will continue its accommodative monetary policy next year, a backdrop that enhances gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset in a low-interest-rate environment.
Luca added that escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly between the United States and Venezuela, have significantly boosted demand for gold as a safe haven amid heightened political uncertainty in global markets. This followed the announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump of a comprehensive blockade on sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela.
He said Trump confirmed that the blockade would remain in place until what he described as the recovery of “stolen oil, land, and assets,” without specifying their value, and also announced his intention to designate the Venezuelan regime as a “foreign terrorist organization,” further intensifying geopolitical concerns and supporting gold prices.
In light of these developments, Luca expects gold prices—both globally and domestically—to reach new record levels in the coming period, forecasting that the ounce could approach $5,000 by 2026.
He noted that Egypt’s local gold market will be directly affected by this upward trend, projecting that 24-karat gold could rise to around EGP 7,000 per gram, while 21-karat gold may reach approximately EGP 6,500. This outlook is supported by increased bank purchases and growing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Luca explained that these projections are underpinned by a combination of economic and political factors, foremost among them the sustained rise in global demand for gold, as central banks and major financial institutions continue to increase their holdings as part of hedging strategies and portfolio diversification.
He added that gold deals between China and Russia represent a key pillar of price support, noting that the two countries accounted for nearly one-fifth of global gold production in 2024, with output of about 380 tonnes for China and 330 tonnes for Russia. This reflects a strategic shift toward strengthening gold reserves in the coming years.
Based on these factors, Luca expects the upward trend in gold prices to continue in the period ahead, amid mounting geopolitical risks and ongoing shifts in global monetary policy.
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