Egypt’s Economy Records 5% Growth in Q4, Annual Rate Beats Forecasts at 4.4%

Egypt’s economy grew 5% in the fourth quarter of the 2024/2025 fiscal year, marking its strongest performance in three years and more than doubling the 2.4% expansion recorded in the same quarter a year earlier, the Ministry of Planning, Economic Development, and International Cooperation announced Tuesday.

The robust performance lifted full-year GDP growth to 4.4%, up from 2.4% in 2023/2024 and slightly above the government’s 4.2% target. The ministry credited the results to reforms under Egypt’s national structural reform program, which aims to improve the business climate, enhance investment governance, and expand the private sector’s role in driving sustainable growth.

“This outcome reflects the resilience of the Egyptian economy in the face of global headwinds,” Planning Minister Rania al-Mashat said, highlighting the strong contributions from non-oil manufacturing, tourism, communications, and financial intermediation.

Non-oil manufacturing surged 18.8% in the fourth quarter and 14.7% across the year, rebounding from two years of contraction. Automotive output rose 126%, pharmaceuticals 52%, and ready-made garments 41%, supported by customs clearance measures and stronger exports. Exports of finished goods grew 12.8%, led by food products, clothing, and cosmetics.

Tourism expanded 19.3% in the fourth quarter, lifting annual growth to 17.3% as hotel capacity increased and services improved. Arrivals topped 17 million, up 16.4% year-on-year.

Telecommunications and IT grew 14.6% in Q4 and 13.8% annually, driven by Egypt’s digital strategy, 5G rollout, and a 180% increase in outsourcing companies to 186.

Financial intermediation rose 12.2%, while transport and storage gained 7%, insurance 5.6%, electricity 5.3%, social services 4.7%, and construction 4.1%.

By contrast, Suez Canal revenues fell sharply, with sector output contracting 52% for the year due to reduced vessel traffic, although the decline slowed to 5.5% in Q4 following new transit incentives. The extractive industries shrank 9% annually, with oil and gas down 7.5% and 19.1% respectively, though the contraction eased in Q4 thanks to new developments in the Mediterranean and Gulf of Suez.

Gross fixed investment at constant prices reached 1.23 trillion Egyptian pounds, with private sector participation rising to 47.5%—its highest share in five years—while public investment fell to 43.3%. Net contributions from investment and inventories swung from negative in 2023/2024 to a strong positive in Q4 2024/2025, signaling a recovery in investor confidence.

Exports of goods and services rose 23.7% to 1.7 trillion pounds, while imports also climbed, led by intermediate goods essential for production, which grew 55.3% and made up more than a third of the total.

Economists say the results position Egypt favorably for its upcoming review with the International Monetary Fund. “These growth indicators are encouraging and should facilitate the next IMF assessment, even if some delays occur,” said Medhat Nafie, lecturer at Cairo University’s Faculty of Economics.

Despite global uncertainty and regional geopolitical tensions, the government maintains that structural reforms, fiscal discipline, and private-sector empowerment will keep growth on a sustainable path.