Globally, about 3.84% of reported the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) cases have died. COVID-19 has killed close to 6,518 people globally and infected 169,719, Dr. Magdy Badran reveals Mortality Rate.
Initial Mortality Rate
Initially, the World Health Organization (WHO) had mentioned 2% as a mortality rate estimate. We don't know how many were infected ("When you look at how many people have died, you need to look at how many people where infected, and right now we don't know that number. So it is early to put a percentage on that.
The only number currently known is how many people have died out of those who have been reported to the WHO. The Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission published on Feb. 28 by WHO is based on 55,924 laboratory confirmed cases.
The Joint Mission acknowledges the known challenges and biases of reporting crude CFR early in an epidemic. Here are its findings on Case Fatality Ratio, or CFR (the mortality rate): As of 20 February, 2,114 of the 55,924 laboratory confirmed cases have died (crude fatality ratio [CFR: 3.8%).
The overall CFR varies by location and intensity of transmission (i.e. 5.8% in Wuhan vs. 0.7% in other areas in China). In China, the overall CFR was higher in the early stages of the outbreak (17.3% for cases with symptom onset from 1-10 January) and has reduced over time to 0.7% for patients with symptom onset after 1 February.
The Joint Mission noted that the standard of care has evolved over the course of the outbreak. Mortality Rate, as discussed by the National Health Commission (NHC) of China on Feb. 4 .
Based on this figure, the national mortality rate to date was 2.1% of confirmed cases. There might be mild cases and other cases not reported.
97% of the country's total deaths (414) were in the Hubei Province. The mortality rate in Wuhan was 4.9%. The mortality rate in Hubei Province was 3.1%. The mortality rate nationwide was 2.1%. The fatality rate in other provinces was 0.16%.
Deaths in Wuhan were 313, accounting for 74% of China's total. Most of the cases were still mild cases, therefore there was no need to panic. National mortality rate was basically stable, as of Feb. 4 at 2.1%, and it was 2.3% at the beginning of the epidemic, which can be seen as a slight decline.
Majority of Coronavirus Cases are Males
Front the analysis of death cases, it emerged that the demographic profile was mainly male, accounting for 2/3, females accounting for 1/3, and is mainly elderly, more than 80% are elderly over 60 years old, and more than 75% had underlying diseases present such as cardiovascular and cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and, in some cases, tumor.
Elderly people with basic diseases, as long as they have pneumonia, were clinically a high-risk factor regardless of whether it is a coronavirus or not, and the case fatality rate was also very high, so it is not that the case fatality rate of pneumonia is high because of the infection with the new coronavirus.
Comparison with Other Viruses
Humans have been battling viruses since before our species had even evolved into its modern form. For one disease — smallpox — we've been able to eradicate it, ridding the world of new cases.
But we're a long way from winning the fight against viruses. In recent decades, several viruses have jumped from animals to humans and triggered sizable outbreaks, claiming thousands of lives.
The viral strain that drove the 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa kills up to 90% of the people it infects, making it the most lethal member of the Ebola family.
But there are other viruses out there that are equally deadly, and some that are even deadlier. Some viruses, including the novel coronavirus currently driving outbreaks around the globe, have lower fatality rates, but still pose a serious threat to public health as we don't yet have the means to combat them.
For comparison, the case fatality rate with seasonal flu in the United States is less than 0.1% (1 death per every 1,000 cases). The mortality rate for SARS was 10% and for MERS 34%.
Marburg virus was identified in 1967 when small outbreaks occurred among lab workers in Germany who were exposed to infected monkeys imported from Uganda.
Marburg virus is similar to Ebola in that both can cause hemorrhagic fever, meaning that infected people develop high fevers and bleeding throughout the body that can lead to shock, organ failure and death.
The mortality rate in the first outbreak was 25%, but it was more than 80% in the 1998-2000 outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, as well as in the 2005 outbreak in Angola, according to WHO. In the absence of treatment, the mortality rate of Rabies is 100%.
COVID-19 Mortality Rate by Age
Probability of dying if infected by the virus differs depending on the age group. The percentages shown below represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19. In general, relatively few cases are seen among children.
AGE DEATH RATE
confirmed cases DEATH RATE
all cases
80+ years old 21.9% 14.8%
70-79 years old 8.0%
60-69 years old 3.6%
50-59 years old 1.3%
40-49 years old 0.4%
30-39 years old 0.2%
20-29 years old 0.2%
10-19 years old 0.2%
0-9 years old no fatalities
Smoking Could Play a Role
A study of more than 44,000 confirmed coronavirus cases in China offers one of the broadest pictures of how the virus operates in humans so far. The study found that men are more likely to die of the virus, with a fatality rate of 2.8% compared to 1.7% for women. Men also represented a slight majority of cases: around 51%.
This data has led some researchers to suspect that certain biological factors might make men more susceptible to the virus. But Chinese men also smoke more than Chinese women, which increases the risk of respiratory problems.
Smokers get more respiratory infections. Smoking makes chronic lung diseases more severe, and increases the risk for respiratory infections.
Genetic factors make some people more susceptible to lung disease from smoking. After years of exposure to cigarette smoke, lung tissue becomes scarred, loses its elasticity, and can no longer exchange air efficiently.
The effects of tobacco smoke reduce lung function and breathlessness due to swelling and narrowing of the lung airways and excess mucus in the lung passages.
Cigarette smoking is a substantial risk factor for important bacterial and viral infections. For example, smokers incur a 2- to 4-fold increased risk of invasive pneumococcal disease.
Influenza risk is several-fold higher and is much more severe in smokers than nonsmokers. Exposure to tobacco smoke suppresses the activation of the immune system response to infection; this mechanism is considered important in people's susceptibility to pneumonia. Smoking is significantly associated with the development of pneumonia.
Women Are Less Likely to Catch Coronavirus
Women may be less likely to be infected in the first place, or their bodies are more able to cope with the virus. You might be surprised there's a difference between men and women's death rates from coronavirus. We see the same effect in a wide range of infections, including flu.
Men are generally in worse health than women owing to lifestyle choices like smoking. This may be a particular problem in China, where estimates suggest 52% of men smoke compared with just 3% of women.
But there are also differences in the way the immune systems of men and women respond to infection.
Women have intrinsically different immune responses to men. Women are more likely to suffer from auto-immune diseases, and there is good evidence that women produce better antibodies to vaccines against flu.
COVID-Mortality Rate by Comorbidity
Mortality Rate probability differs depending on a pre-existing condition. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by a pre-existing condition.
Rather, it represents, for a patient with a given pre-existing condition, the risk of dying if infected by COVID-19.
The pre-existing condition Death rate
The confirmed cases Death rate
All cases
Cardiovascular disease 13.2% 10.5%
Diabetes 9.2% 7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease 8.0% 6.3%
Hypertension 8.4% 6.0%
Cancer 7.6% 5.6%
no pre-existing conditions 0.9%
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