Citigroup Surprises Markets: Gold on Track for a New Historic High

In a surprising shift from its previous outlook, Citigroup Inc. has raised its forecast for gold prices, predicting a strong rally that could push the precious metal to historic levels in the coming months. The revision comes amid deteriorating economic indicators in the United States and mounting inflationary pressures driven by newly imposed tariffs.

In a research note published Monday, analysts including Max Layton stated that gold is expected to trade between $3,300 and $3,600 per ounce over the next quarter, as Washington imposes import tariffs exceeding an average of 15%. This, they said, adds further pressure to economic growth and boosts gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

This marks a notable reversal from the bank’s projections in June, when it anticipated that gold prices could fall below $3,000 per ounce in the coming quarters.

“The market has been gripped by fears of a U.S. recession over the past three years due to persistently high interest rates, prompting investors to increase their gold holdings as a hedge,” the report said.

Analysts added that these concerns have intensified during the first half of this year following the escalation of tariff policies by President Donald Trump, described in the note as “the largest tariff agenda in a century.”

Gold had surged earlier this year, hitting a record high of $3,500 per ounce on April 22, before entering a consolidation phase in recent months as markets searched for clearer direction.

Citigroup’s new stance aligns with increasingly bullish positions taken by major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Fidelity International, both of which have recently voiced greater optimism for gold’s long-term prospects.

Fidelity had previously indicated that gold could climb as high as $4,000 per ounce, citing a weakening U.S. dollar and growing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve as key catalysts.

Despite this more optimistic outlook, Citi analysts maintained a degree of caution about the longer-term outlook. They noted that their previous forecast range of $3,150 to $3,500 had played out well amid recent market stability.

However, they flagged 2026 as a potential turning point, citing the possibility of a rebound in the U.S. labor market and the introduction of new fiscal stimulus measures under the so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”, which could limit further gold upside.