World Gold Council: Central Bank Demand to Remain Robust Through 2026

The World Gold Council has reported that robust demand for gold from central banks is projected to persist through the first half of 2026.

Key Forecasts and Data: Q1 Acquisitions: The report indicates that bullion acquisitions by these banks are expected to average approximately 585 tons in the first quarter alone. This follows the completion of a series of forward delivery transactions scheduled for February and March of next year.

Asset Breakdown: Central bank purchases are expected to be distributed across:

190 tons of raw gold.

330 tons of bullion and coins.

275 tons via Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and related futures contracts.

Price Sensitivity: The report emphasizes that any increase of 100 tons above these projected levels could drive the price per ounce up by nearly 2%, highlighting the market's sensitivity to shifts in the purchasing pace of investors and central banks.

Market Outlook and Historical Context: The report stresses that central banks will remain a primary supporting force for the gold market in 2026. This follows three consecutive years where annual purchases exceeded 1,000 tons. Purchases for the coming year are projected to reach approximately 755 tons—a level below recent peaks but still historically strong.

IMF Data & Global Reserves: Reviewing International Monetary Fund (IMF) data on global gold trade, the report noted:

Total Holdings: Central bank holdings reached approximately 36,200 tons by the end of 2024.

Reserve Share: This represents about 20% of total global official reserves, an increase from 15% at the end of 2023.

Future Allocation Scenarios: The report analyzed a scenario where banks currently holding less than 10% of their reserves in gold raise their allocation to that threshold. At a price of $4,000 per ounce, this would require a capital shift into gold valued at an estimated $335 billion, equivalent to purchasing approximately 2,600 additional tons.

Conclusion: This report underscores the pivotal role central banks play in supporting the gold market, both through direct purchases and their influence on investor sentiment. This influence ensures that gold is poised to continue recording strong demand and price levels in the coming period.