The World Bank expects global energy prices to jump by approximately 24 percent in 2026, potentially reaching their highest levels since the outbreak of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to its latest Commodity Markets Outlook report.
The forecast hinges on a baseline scenario in which disruptions linked to ongoing tensions in the Middle East begin to ease in the coming months. However, the institution warned that risks remain heavily skewed to the upside, particularly if geopolitical tensions escalate further or supply disruptions persist longer than anticipated.
The report assumes a gradual normalization of shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz by October 2026. The strategic waterway, which previously handled around 35 percent of global seaborne crude oil trade, has been significantly affected by regional instability, leading to constrained supplies of energy, fertilizers, and other commodities.
Beyond energy, the World Bank projects overall commodity prices to rise by 16 percent in 2026, driven not only by higher oil and gas prices but also by gains in fertilizers and key industrial metals, some of which are expected to reach record levels.
Recent market movements underscore the volatility. Oil prices have surged sharply, with Brent crude oil trading more than 50 percent higher in mid-April compared to the beginning of the year, amid stalled diplomatic efforts and continued disruptions to maritime transport routes.
The report highlights that attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping constraints have triggered one of the most severe oil supply shocks in modern history, amplifying concerns over global inflation and economic stability.
As uncertainty persists, policymakers and investors are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, with energy markets likely to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical shifts in the months ahead.
Follow the latest news on Google News
