In an unprecedented scene, Egypt’s gold market is experiencing intense pressure, clearly reflected in sales and delivery activity, with long queues forming outside jewelry shops and waiting periods stretching to weeks to receive gold bars. This phenomenon is no longer merely a reflection of rising global prices; it has evolved into a widespread behavioral trend, driving citizens to rush toward gold as both a safe haven and a quick-profit investment at the same time.
Abdel Aal Salima, (Deputy Head of the Gold Division at the Kafr El-Sheikh Chamber of Commerce), confirmed that what the market is witnessing today is completely outside the bounds of traditional experience, for both traders and manufacturers. He noted that unprecedented heavy demand, combined with sharp movements in global exchanges, has created a new reality no longer governed by familiar rules.
He explained that a citizen who goes today to buy a gold bar or a gold item is often surprised by delivery dates that can extend to a full month, a situation Salima attributes to “the wide gap between surging demand and factories’ production capacity.”
Salima added that citizens no longer view gold merely as a hedge against currency depreciation; instead, they increasingly see it as a direct investment tool capable of generating tangible profits. He said: “Someone who bought a gram at EGP 3,000 can now sell it for EGP 7,000 or more. Naturally, people feel they are making money, so they rush to buy.”
Delivery Crisis: Demand Exceeds Production Capacity
Abdel Aal Salima, Deputy Head of the Gold Division, clarified that the primary reason behind delays in delivering gold bars is the unprecedented surge in demand, which may push delivery times back by two to three weeks, or even up to a full month.
He explained that the production process begins with importing raw gold, which then passes through complex stages including cutting, precise calibration to ensure “999.9 purity,” melting, refining, and finally hallmarking at the Assay and Weights Authority. All of these stages are time-consuming.
Salima pointed out that refining machines have limited capacity, while current demand far exceeds factories’ production capabilities, making it impossible to meet required quantities in a short time. He added: “In this equation, the trader has no control. He depends entirely on factories to supply raw material, so delivery delays are completely beyond his will.”
He stressed that the density of demand compared with production capacity is the main reason behind supply shortages, saying: “If a machine’s capacity is 20 kilograms per day and demand reaches a ton, delays are inevitable. This is neither stubbornness nor hoarding by factories; it is simply the natural result of the gap between demand volume and operational capacity.”
The Gap Between Global and Local Prices… When Should You Stop Buying?
Salima warned against purchasing gold when there is clear exaggeration in the local price compared with the global price. He noted that an acceptable gap should not exceed EGP 50–100 per gram for 21-karat gold. If the difference reaches EGP 170 or 200, as has happened recently, caution is advised.
He said: “I’ve said it before—when the gap widens, we should pause. But the problem is that local increases came alongside global jumps of $400 to $500 in a single day, so no one knows when the market will stop.”
There Is No Such Thing as a “Goldsmiths’ Dollar”
Salima categorically denied claims about the existence of a so-called “goldsmiths’ dollar,” explaining that imports are carried out through banks at the official exchange rate, and that local prices are driven solely by supply and demand, not by any fictitious pricing mechanism.
The Citizen Is Not Just a Victim… but a Partner in the Crisis
In a frank analysis of consumer behavior, Salima said that citizens play a fundamental role in fueling domestic price increases. Driven by fear of missing out or currency erosion, people rush to buy during record highs, increasing pressure on prices.
He explained that traders ultimately respond to demand: “If there’s a line outside the shop, the trader will sell. If he refuses, the customer will go elsewhere.”
He emphasized that price increases are often not motivated by selling, but by the need to buy raw gold to maintain inventory weight: “I raise the price not to sell, but to be able to buy from those who come to sell to me.”
He added: “I’m not telling you not to buy—just choose a time of stability. When the price gap between the local and global markets exceeds EGP 170 or 200 per gram, you should immediately stop buying.”
Gold vs. Silver and Copper: Which Is Better?
Regarding the recent “silver fever,” Salima expressed a clear bias toward gold as a long-term investment. Despite silver rising by nearly 150%, he believes that “gold remains the winning horse” due to its liquidity and ease of storage.
He noted that silver has a ceiling to its rise and warned that silver may fall on its own while gold continues climbing. He explained that silver is harder to resell, both in terms of liquidity and the spread between buying and selling prices, and that storing and transporting large quantities of silver is far more difficult than gold.
He said: “A kilo of gold fits in your pocket, while a kilo of silver needs space and storage. When it comes time to sell, gold is faster and more flexible.”
Salima believes that silver in Egypt is currently priced above its global value due to strong demand, posing a risk for small investors.
As for copper, he strongly warned against viewing it as an investment, describing attempts to promote it as “a forced culture.” He said copper is not a store of value and that investors could lose up to 50% upon resale, as it is a commodity, not a savings vessel.
Gold Bar Packaging and Counterfeit Gold: Fact or Myth?
Salima addressed the controversy surrounding gold bar packaging, stressing that a bar does not need packaging to be authentic, and that all gold bars produced in Egypt—regardless of brand—use the same raw material and meet 100% quality standards. He noted that an experienced trader can identify real gold immediately by handling it.
He advised traders to open bars and verify them thoroughly before purchasing, to protect both themselves and consumers. He also warned against being misled by “cashback” offers, urging buyers to focus on the highest real resale price.
He pointed out that oversight in Egypt, through the Assay and Weights Authority, is very strong, protecting the market from counterfeit gold—unlike in some other countries.
Global Policies and the Struggles of Local Traders
Salima did not overlook the international dimension, noting that “President Trump is the decision-maker,” studying public psychology and playing to trends, which directly impacts global gold prices. He said decisions are not made locally, but by major powers such as the United States.
Locally, he revealed that traders themselves are suffering significant losses due to price volatility, emphasizing that traders neither print nor mine gold—they simply meet customer demand. Their real interest lies in market stability. During sharp rallies, traders may raise prices not to sell, but to be able to buy raw gold from sellers.
Fraud Increases as Prices Rise
Salima warned that periods of record price increases often see a rise in fraud attempts, in both gold and silver, as higher values increase incentives for counterfeiting. He stressed the importance of dealing with reputable names locally or internationally: “Buy from someone who cares about their reputation more than gold.”
He reaffirmed the right of traders—and consumers—to open gold bar packaging to verify authenticity, warning that packaging itself can become a trap for counterfeiters exploiting global brand names.
He advised: “Multiply the global gold price by the official bank dollar rate and divide by the ounce weight. If you find an unjustified local premium, wait until the market cools.”
Real Investment: Preserving Value, Not Chasing Trends
Salima concluded by stressing that true investment is about preserving value and ensuring easy exit, not chasing temporary trends.
“I buy gold so that later I can buy property, a car, or prepare for the future. That’s value preservation, not speculation.”
He added: “I’m not saying don’t buy—but buy during stability. The market won’t keep soaring forever, and not every rise is an opportunity.”
Market Outlook and Saving Culture
Commenting on the World Gold Council’s 2025 report, which stated that Egyptians purchased 24 tons of gold bars and 22 tons of jewelry, Salima said these figures no longer accurately reflect reality. During crises, gold bars now account for around 90% of the market, while jewelry drops to just 10%, compared with equal shares during stable periods.
He reaffirmed that gold will remain Egyptians’ top choice for preserving savings—whether for buying property, a car, or securing the future—calling for calm and warning against rumors and unjustified price spikes. He stressed that “gold may get sick, but it never dies,” remaining the safest long-term investment.
The Future of the Industry: From 24 Karat to the “Sun Logo”
Salima revealed a new trend in the Egyptian market aimed at reducing workmanship costs by producing jewelry bearing the “Sun Logo.” These pieces feature minimal stones (less than 5%) and can be redeemed without deducting stone weight, making them an excellent savings vehicle that combines adornment with value preservation.
He confirmed that Egyptian manufacturing is strong and competitive with Italian and Turkish products in quality, urging citizens to remain calm and buy gold rationally, not emotionally.
The “Trend Game” and Global Politics
Salima again highlighted external influences, saying President Trump studies human behavior and plays on trends. Global decisions and statements can trigger extreme price jumps—such as gold rising $500 in a single day—forcing local traders into constant alert to cover their financial positions.
He said: “A trader sells a gram only to immediately buy another in its place. Otherwise, massive losses could wipe out his capital.”
Investment Advice: When Should You Buy Gold?
Salima warned against buying when the price gap reaches EGP 170–200, or even EGP 400 as seen at times, stressing that citizens themselves contribute to domestic price inflation by rushing to buy during rallies.
He emphasized that gold remains a safe haven, but should be bought during periods of stability, not during speculative frenzies, as sharp rises may not last and could be followed by sudden corrections.
Key advice to citizens:
Do not buy at price peaks.
Monitor the gap between local and global prices.
Do not be misled by “cashback” offers; seek the highest real resale price.
Traders have the right to open gold bars to verify authenticity.
Packaging does not protect against fraud—expertise does.
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