With the election of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Uzbekistan has embarked on an open, proactive, pragmatic and constructive foreign policy aimed at creating a space of mutually beneficial cooperation, stability and sustainable development in Central Asia, - noted expert.
The new approaches of official Tashkent have found comprehensive support in all capitals of Central Asia, which has become the basis for positive changes in the region.
In particular, in recent years there has been a qualitative shift towards strengthening regional cooperation in Central Asia. A systematic political dialogue based on the principles of good-neighborliness, mutual respect and equality has been established between the leaders of the states of the region.
This is evidenced by the introduction of the practice of holding regular Consultative Meetings of the Heads of State of Central Asia since 2018.
Another important achievement was the adoptionof the Joint Statement of the Leaders of the Central Asian States at the second Consultative Meeting in November 2019, , which can be regarded as a kind of development program for the region. It contains consolidated approaches and a common vision of the heads of states regarding the prospects for strengthening regional cooperation.
The achieved high level of consolidation of the region and the willingness of the Central Asian countries to take responsibility for solving common regional problems is also evidenced by the adoption of a special UN resolution "Strengthening Regional and International Cooperation for Peace, Stability and Sustainable Development in the Central Asian Regionin June 2018.
Thanks to all these positive trends, a number of systemic problems that previously hindered the full realization of the enormous potential of regional cooperation are now finding their long-term solution based on the principles of searching for reasonable compromises and mutual consideration of interests. Most importantly, the Central Asian states have begun to play a primary and key role in decision-making on the most pressing and urgent issues of development in the entire region.
Such strengthening of inter-state relations today contributes to the establishment of Central Asia as a stable, open and dynamically developing region, a reliable and predictable international partner as well as a capacious and attractive market.
Thus, the new political atmosphere has given a powerful impetus to the development of trade and economic, cultural and humanitarian exchanges. This can be seen in the dynamic growth of trade within the region, which reached $5.2 billion in 2019, 2.5 times more than in 2016. Contrary to the challenging effects of the pandemic, intraregional trade remained at $5 billion in 2020.
At the same time, the region's total foreign trade in 2016-2019 increased 56 percent to $168.2 billion.
During this period, the inflow of FDI to the region increased by 40%, amounting to $ 37.6 billion. As a result, the share of investments in Central Asia from the total volume in the world increased from 1.6% to 2.5%.
At the same time, the tourist potential of the region is being revealed. The number of travelers to the countries of Central Asia in 2016-2019 increased almost 2 times from 9.5 to 18.4 million people.
As a consequence, the overall macroeconomic indicators of the region are improving. In particular, the combined GDP of the region's countries increased from $253 billion in 2016 to $302.8 billion in 2019. In a pandemic environment, this figure fell by just 2.5 percent to $295.1 billion by the end of 2020.
All of these factors together show that Uzbekistan's new pragmatic approaches in its foreign policy have led to the creation of favorable conditions for the Central Asian states to jointly promote major economic projects of
a transregional nature, bring their relations with neighboring regions to a new level and actively involve the region in the formation of multilateral coordination and cooperation structures.
Such plans are enshrined in the above-mentioned Joint Statement of the Heads of State of Central Asia, issued at the end of the 2019 Consultative Meeting. In particular, the document notes that the Central Asian states will continue to strive to develop open economic cooperation and persify relations with other partner countries, international and regional organizations in the hope of consolidating regional peace, stability, and expanding the prospects for economic development in the region.
These goals should be served by the political and economic concept of interconnectedness promoted by Uzbekistan, which is based on the desire to build a solid architecture of mutually beneficial cooperation between Central and South Asia.
These aspirations of official Tashkent are motivated by the interest of all states of both regions in developing closer relations, a clear understanding of the inpisibility of security, the complementary nature of economies and the interconnectedness of socio-economic development processes in Central and South Asia.
The implementation of these plans is designed to contribute to the construction of a vast space of equal opportunities, mutually beneficial cooperation and sustainable development. A logical consequence of this should be the creation of a belt of stability around Central Asia.
Guided by these goals, the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev put forward an initiative to hold in July of this year in Tashkent the international conference "Central and South Asia: Regional Interconnectedness. Challenges and Opportunities", designed to consolidate the countries of the two regions in designing the conceptual foundations of a sustainable model of inter-regional connectivity.
This idea was first voiced during the speech of the head of Uzbekistan at the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly. These issues took center stage in another important political event in 2020 - the President's address to the Parliament, where South Asia was identified as a priority in the country's foreign policy.
At the same time, Uzbekistan has significantly increased its political and diplomatic activity in the South Asian direction. This is reflected in the promotion of the "India-Central Asia" dialogue format, a series of virtual summits "Uzbekistan-India" (December 2020) and "Uzbekistan-Pakistan" (April 2021). (April 2021).
In this regard, the signing of the Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan trilateral agreement to create the Trans-Afghan corridor designed to connect the countries of the two regions with a reliable transport network was a landmark event.
All these steps show that Uzbekistan has in fact already started implementing plans to build a large trans-regional interconnectedness.
The upcoming high-level conference should become a system-forming element and a kind of culmination of these efforts.
In this regard, the planned event has already aroused increased interest among a wide range of regional and international experts, who have noted the importance and relevance of the upcoming conference.
In particular, observers and analysts of such authoritative international editions as "Diplomat" (USA), "Project Syndicate" (USA), "Modern Diplomacy" (European Union), "Radio Free Europe" (EU), "Nezavisimaya Gazeta" (Russia), "Anadolu" (Turkey) and "Tribune" (Pakistan) comment on the plans of building interregional connectivity.
According to their estimations, the results of the forthcoming conference could give a start to the idea of a grandiose integration project, implying rapprochement of the two fast-growing and culturally-civilizationally close regions.
Such a prospect could create a new economic growth point for Central and South Asia, dramatically transforming the economic picture of the macro-region and improving interregional coordination to ensure stability.
Afghanistan as a key link to ensure integration of the two regions
Building trans-regional connectivity, of which the Trans-Afghan Corridor is a strategic component, places Afghanistan at the core of intra-regional connectivity and recaptures its lost historic role as a key link in promoting integration between the two regions.
The realization of these goals is especially necessary against the background of the upcoming withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, scheduled for September of this year. Such developments undoubtedly create a turning point in the modern history of Afghanistan.
On the one hand, the U.S. withdrawal, which is considered a key condition for the so-called Doha agreements, could give a strong impetus to the peace process in the neighboring country, contributing to the establishment of Afghanistan as a sovereign and prosperous state.
On the other hand, the appearance of a power vacuum threatens to intensify the internal armed struggle for power with the risk of escalating it into fratricidal war. The clashes between the Taliban and the Afghan government forces are already increasing in intensity, which may negatively affect the prospects for achieving an internal political consensus.
All the above-mentioned tectonic changes taking place in and around Afghanistan make the forthcoming conference even more topical, demonstrating the correctness of Uzbekistan's chosen course towards inter-regional rapprochement, as the current realities in Afghanistan make cooperation between the two regions an objective and vital necessity.
Realizing this, Uzbekistan intends to start the process of adaptation of the states of the two regions to the post-American era in Afghanistan. After all, the prospect of the upcoming withdrawal of the US contingent should encourage all neighboring nations to assume a significant share of responsibility for the economic and military-political situation in Afghanistan, improvement in which is the key to securing the long-term stability of the macro-region.
Given this fact, Uzbekistan is trying to achieve a broad regional consensus on the Afghan issue by demonstrating the beneficial nature of establishing early peace in the long-suffering neighboring country for the overall prosperity of all regional states.
In this regard, foreign experts are convinced that Tashkent's plans for interconnectedness organically complement the current Afghan policy of Uzbekistan, in which the republic is in search of a mutually acceptable formula for peace and ways to ensure long-term stability in Afghanistan.
Such an ideal recipe for peace is interregional economic integration with the involvement of Afghanistan, which will certainly have a stabilizing effect on the internal situation in the country.
A wide range of experts hold such an opinion. In particular, according to the Russian newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta, the Mazar-e-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar railway project promoted by Tashkent will become an "economic springboard" for Afghanistan, since the route will run along the deposits of minerals such as copper, tin, granite, zinc and iron ore.
As a result, their development will begin, and tens of thousands of jobs will be created - alternative sources of income for the Afghan population.
Most importantly, the expansion of inter-regional trade through Afghanistan will bring economic benefits to the country in the form of transit fees. In this context, the opinion of the analysts of the American publication "Project Syndicate" is interesting, according to which the "Trans-Afghan" railroad could transport up to 20 million tons of cargo per year and the transport costs would be reduced by 30-35%.
With this in mind, observers from the Turkish newspaper Anadolu are convinced that the proposed railway connection through Afghanistan is a source of enormous economic benefits, which could stabilize the region more than any political deal.
The practical implementation of these plans is also vital against the background of the continued dependence of the Afghan economy on foreign aid, the scale of which in recent years has shown a declining trend.
In particular, the amount of annual financial support from donors, which covers about 75% of the country's public spending, has dropped from $6.7 billion in 2011 to about $4 billion in 2020. It is expected that in the next 4 years these indicators will decrease by about 30%.
In these conditions, there is a growing need to accelerate the implementation of other economic projects of trans-regional scale, which can create additional favorable conditions for the economic revival of Afghanistan.
Among them one can highlight such projects as the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline and CASA-1000 electric power line, whose practical implementation would not only have a very positive impact on ensuring energy security in Afghanistan, but would also bring considerable financial benefits to the Afghan side from the transit of energy resources to South Asian countries.
In turn, the prospect of Afghanistan becoming an important transit and energy hub will create additional interest for all intra-Afghan forces in achieving political consensus and will serve as a solid socio-economic basis for the peace process. In short, the extensive involvement of the Afghan side in the system of inter-regional relations, created by Tashkent, could be used as a reinforcing mechanism in promoting stability.
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