UN Chief Warns 44 Million Face Hunger Over Hormuz Crisis

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has warned that up to 44 million people could face severe hunger due to disruptions linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, as the Middle East crisis enters its third month under a fragile ceasefire.

Speaking at a press conference, Guterres said restrictions on maritime navigation are severely affecting the transport of oil, gas, fertilizers, and essential goods, triggering widespread disruptions across manufacturing and global food markets. He stressed that the economic and humanitarian consequences are escalating rapidly, placing mounting pressure on the global economy.

Guterres outlined three possible scenarios for the crisis. The most optimistic assumes an immediate lifting of restrictions, though supply chains would remain strained for months. Under this scenario, global growth could slow from 3.4% to 3.1%, while inflation may rise from 3.8% to 4.4%, and global trade could shrink by around 2%.

A second scenario envisions prolonged disruption, potentially leading to a global contraction of 2.5%, rising inflation, and pushing up to 33 million people into poverty, with 44 million facing acute food insecurity. Development gains in many regions could reverse rapidly under such conditions.

The third and most severe scenario assumes continued disruption through the end of the year, with inflation reaching 6% and global growth dropping to 2%, raising the risk of a broader economic downturn with significant social and political consequences, particularly for vulnerable populations.

Guterres warned that the longer the crisis persists, the more costly and complex recovery efforts will become. Developing countries are expected to bear the brunt of the impact, facing widening trade deficits, job losses, and increasing risks of famine as shipping disruptions and price increases continue.

He called on all parties to act urgently to restore freedom of navigation in line with international obligations, ensuring safe passage for vessels and the resumption of global trade flows. He also urged restraint to preserve the ceasefire and support ongoing diplomatic efforts.