Tunisia's Protests.. Controversy of Causes and Responsibility

Since its revolution in 2011, Tunisia has witnessed many changes and crises. What does this critical stage of the political transition witnessed by Tunisia look like…..causes and responsibility?

Although Tunisia is considered one of the most important countries which witnessed the "Arab Spring" revolutions, the political transition process continues to face many obstacles, which have negative repercussions on the country's economy and development opportunities.

Nowadays, it faces its biggest test since the 2011 revolution after thousands of people across Tunisia demonstrated against the Prime Minister and Ennahda, the moderate Islamist ruling party, consequently, president Kais Saied decided to oust the government and freeze the parliament for its poor handling of the COVID-19 pandemic

Saied justified his suspension of the parliament and dismissal of the government by citing article 80 of the constitution which grants the president emergency powers in the event of an "imminent threat"

In this context, let me take a step back to analyze the dynamics which sharpen escalation of the political crisis that has been going on for more than seven months in Tunisia, which can be detailed as follows:

On the political level: The political scene remains turbulent. Tunisian political system has not completed its democratization, since last January, in a way that state institutions have become paralyzed in managing the country’s affairs, the parliament, presidency, and judiciary have found themselves unable to navigate the polarizing process of appointing judges to a constitutional court. So the absence of this authority has left Tunisia prey to a series of constitutional crises as prominent politicians focus on strengthening their positions rather than advancing the political and economic reforms the country needs.

On the other hand, the government of Hisham Al-Mashishi also suffered from a crisis of not resolving some vacant ministerial seats, in light of Tunisian President Kais Saied's objection to Al-Mashishi's selection of 11 ministers for reasons related to their involvement in financial and administrative corruption cases.

In addition to the previous disputes, there are internal tensions as we know the current parliament suffers from the continuation of the conflict between secular and civil parties, led by the Free Constitutional Party, and Islam-Oriented Parties’ Ideologies led by the Ennahda Movement and the Dignity Coalition ( Al Karama ), which was evident recently in the assault by Sahbi Samara and Seif El-Din Makhlouf, from the “Dignity Coalition" against the head of the Free Constitutional Party, Abeer Moussa, during one of the plenary sessions of Parliament which was devoted to discussing several topics, including the government's agreement with the Qatar Fund for Development to open an office in Tunisia.

Additionally, the national dialogue initiatives, seen as a critical tool for the prevention of violent conflict and for managing political crisis and transitions, failed in Tunisia and none of the national initiatives that were put forward during the recent period have succeeded due to the sharp pision between the political actors.

So political polarization and the hegemony of the Ennahda movement over the current parliament and over Al-Mashishi government, play a big role in what is happening nowadays in Tunisia.

On the economic level: Tunisia is witnessing a significant deterioration at the economic level, Tunisia now has budget deficits and debt repayment issues that could require a new loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF); one of the most prominent indicators of this is the lack of liquidity necessary to pay off sovereign debts at the end of July, as the government must repay two loans, each worth $500 million, one of them on July 24, the second is on August 5th.

The Tunisian government has failed to make any tangible progress in negotiations with the International Monetary Fund( IMF) to obtain a USD 4 billion loan. Furthermore, in light of the distressed economic conditions, the country will face the risk of defaulting on foreign debts and a further decline in the country’s credit rating which has actually been downgraded from “B” to “B-”, coupled with the absence of an economic reform program and the declining revenues of key economic sectors such as tourism due to the COVID-19 crisis.

In the same context, Corona virus-related deaths reached a record for the country last week, passing 300 in one 24-hour period. Tunisia has one of the highest per-capita death rates in the world.

Culturally, protests in Tunisia have been a continual feature of the decade since the revolution. Public demonstrations are an expression of the enduring democratic spirit of Tunisia’s people, but also an indication of the country’s failure to complete its political transition and offer improved socio-economic opportunities to its population.

So the previous facts suggest that the political crisis will continue, especially within the absence of national consensus between the parties on how to resolve the crisis, the performance of the government, which has become incapable of facing the political, economic, and health challenges in the country.

Thus, the Tunisian president has instituted exceptional measures as of July 27 following his decision to dismiss the prime minister and parliament, shutting down public agencies, institutions, and banning travel between cities.

In the same context, the president will focus in the upcoming days on three critical aspects which can be summarized as follows:-

Firstly: Further restrictive measures may be implemented in the upcoming days due to the fear of threats posed by the el Nahda movement. Authorities will almost certainly increase security to monitor any future large gatherings and protests as well as preventing all demonstrations due to the potential for violence. particularly the gatherings which are likely in the urban centers in Tunis near major government buildings.

Secondly: Appointing a new qualified and independent prime minister in the coming days; this appointment will be a signal to the public that the president intends to form a government that can deliver on its promises and achieve serious economic reforms. If the president fails to enact the reforms he has stated, his move will be deemed illegal procedure and thus will significantly undermine his legitimacy within Tunisia.

Finally, the country will strive to fight corruption. Tunisia's prosecutors have opened an investigation  into alleged foreign campaign funding and an anonymous donation of the  three political parties, including Ennahda who contributed to the deterioration of the Tunisian situation

When we talk about the International response towards the development in Tunisia we can say that it differs based on the strategic and political interests, as Global powers have adopted a cautious approach so far. The United States and Western European countries have praised Tunisia for years for adopting democracy. They were largely slow to respond on Monday to Saied's moves and appeared unsure whether to condemn or endorse them.

However, Omer Celik, a spokesman for Turkish President Erdogan, called the move “illegitimate; the reason- Justice and Development Party (AKP) is allied with Ennahda.

In conclusion, the decisions recently taken by Tunisian President Kais Saied did not come from a vacuum. Rather, it came amid a stage of deterioration in various fields, due to the Elnahda movement whose policies began to affect negatively the internal political situation, which required urgent intervention.