Tump’s Threat to Cancel SpaceX Contracts Could Force U.S. Back Into Russian Dependence, Experts Warn

US President Donald Trump’s threat to revoke the government contracts with Elon Musk’s SpaceX has sparked serious concern among space policy experts, who warn that such a move could undermine American space dominance and potentially force NASA to resume its reliance on Russia for access to the International Space Station.

In a report published by "News week" , multiple analysts cautioned that cutting ties with SpaceX—the company behind many of NASA’s most critical crewed missions—would leave the U.S. space program with limited alternatives.

“SpaceX is essential to both U.S. national security and NASA’s operations. It’s a core player in everything the United States is doing in space,” said Clayton Sopp, Deputy Director of the Space Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, an institution labeled “undesirable” by Russian authorities.

Sopp warned that canceling SpaceX contracts would create “a massive gap” in American space capabilities, particularly in launching astronauts and maintaining operations aboard the ISS. “There is no current service that can immediately fill that void,” he added.

The *Newsweek* report follows Trump’s escalating feud with Musk, whose companies have received an estimated \$38 billion in government contracts, loans, subsidies, and tax breaks over the past decade—support that has significantly contributed to Musk becoming the world’s richest man, according to *The Washington Post*.

Trump, reacting to Musk’s recent public criticisms and calls for his disqualification from office, has threatened to conduct a sweeping review of government contracts with Musk’s companies. That review, he hinted, could lead to their cancellation.

In response, Musk announced that SpaceX would “immediately” begin pulling its Dragon spacecraft from service—an announcement that raised eyebrows and questions about the potential impact on NASA’s crewed space missions.

Scott Hubbard, former director of NASA’s Ames Research Center and founding director of its Astrobiology Institute, expressed skepticism that Trump’s threats would materialize but warned of the consequences if they did.

“There is currently no alternative to the Falcon 9–Dragon system,” Hubbard told Newsweek. “Without it, astronauts could be left stranded on the ISS—unless we’re prepared to go back to the Russians, asking for mercy and seats on Soyuz.”

That sentiment was echoed by Benjamin L. Schmitt, a physicist and space policy expert at the University of Pennsylvania. He called SpaceX’s 2020 crewed flights “a breakthrough in ending U.S. dependence on Russian launch systems,” noting that for years NASA had paid Russia for Soyuz seats following the retirement of the Space Shuttle.

“Canceling these contracts now would be a major setback—not just technologically, but strategically,” Schmitt said. “It would hand leverage back to the Kremlin and strike at the heart of U.S. space independence.”

SpaceX currently holds more than \$22 billion in active U.S. government contracts, including a \$2.89 billion deal with NASA to develop the Human Landing System for the Artemis Moon mission and a \$1.15 billion contract for a second lunar lander. Other major deals include a \$1.8 billion agreement with the National Reconnaissance Office for a classified satellite network and \$102 million from the U.S. Air Force for the Rocket Cargo program.

As tensions between Trump and Musk intensify, the political drama threatens to spill into national security and aerospace policy—areas where SpaceX has become deeply embedded.

“SpaceX has moved from being a disruptor to a pillar of U.S. space infrastructure,” said Sopp. “Removing that pillar could cause the entire structure to wobble.”