The year 2020 that elapsed was full of changes in various fields- the economic, health, social, political, cultural, humanitarian as well as family connections- it covered all aspects of a person’s daily life. I don’t think that those changes will quickly disappear based on the figures released by international organizations or the state of affairs several countries are experiencing.
A recent report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the economic outlook in North Africa and the Middle East showed that the region’s GDP will shrink by 5 percent this year. The region, which includes all Arab countries and Iran, will record its worst economic performance, surpassing the record GDP’s decline of 4.7 percent in 1978 when it was witnessing major unrest…
We must not forget that the region experienced, in recent years, a series of bloody conflicts especially in Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Libya. All those conflicts have undermined the economies of these countries and increased their poverty rates. Hence, the governments are no longer able to provide the services as in the pre-war phase. It is worth mentioning that the region’s youth unemployment rates now stand at 26.6 percent.
The Minister of Economy, Bruno Le Maire, in France, one of the major industrialized countries, said the country is on the verge of worse economic downturn by the beginning of the year due to the consequences of Covid-19.
The French minister announced, during a video session with Institut Montaigne- a nonprofit, transpartisan think tank based in Paris- that more companies are on the verge of bankruptcy compared to last year (2020). This requires the government to continue providing “comprehensive” support to the sectors that have been severely affected by the economic crisis due to the outbreak of the Coronavirus. The sectors include hotels, restaurants, culture and sports.
Hotel and restaurant owners in France are requesting aid of up to 3 million euros, similar to what Germany pays her companies, to help them pay the fixed costs. Discussions are taking place in Brussels that should verify the validity of such a mechanism.
In parallel, the minister is urging French banks to postpone, for one year, the start of repaying loans guaranteed by the state that are granted to companies; the first payments are due in the spring.
He also expressed his openness to the idea of providing more support to the most needy, perhaps by issuing food cheques.
This is on one hand. On the other hand, the estimates of the long-term geo-strategic impacts of the current pandemic are not accurate. There is no single future vision guaranteed to occur until the year (2030). As a result, we can predict one of the following possible scenarios:
1- The end of the global liberal order.
2- Authoritarian despotism similar to the 1930’s.
3- A global system dominated by China.
4- A green international agenda.
5- Important local changes in healthcare and education sectors
It is, thus, not surprising to see demonstrators storming the U.S. Capitol, waving banners, some of which read: “Trump is my President”. They vandalized the building, got into the halls and took pictures, echoing what Trump says that the presidential elections are rigged. This was followed by many ministers and advisors submitting their resignations, and calls increased for ending the term of President Trump via invoking Article 25 of the Constitution. All those are things that we have not seen in the history of the United States, except in the famous TV series-The House of Cards.
All these successive events will completely change America’s perception of democracy and the entire world.
I am convinced that what is happening politically in the United States of America, without forgetting the consequences of the poor handling of the novel coronavirus pandemic, is a harbinger of a relative decline for the United States in the global system- its prestige has declined significantly. All this may lead to the continual erosion of the liberal world order and the return of fascism in some parts of the world.
But this will not prevent the rebirth of liberalism. However, major crises can sometimes lead to unpredictable results. The Great Depression led to the resurgence of isolationism, nationalism and fascism and the outbreak of World War II.
However, that Depression inevitably resulted in the launching of a set of economic programs in America known as the “New Deal”, the emergence of the United States as a global superpower, and the eventual the end of colonialism.
