Swiss gold exports rose by 30% month-on-month in March, with shipments to Britain jumping to their highest level since December, while exports to China increased by 18%, according to recent Swiss customs data.
Shipments from Switzerland to the United Kingdom climbed to 57.6 tons last month, compared to 19.8 tons in February, as gold continued to flow back from the United States following a massive exodus last year driven by tariffs. Switzerland serves as the world's largest gold refining and transit hub, while London is the global center for over-the-counter (OTC) gold trading.
Supplies to India, the world's second-largest gold consumer, fell to 3.1 tons in March from 11.6 tons, as domestic demand remained weak. The March export figures reflect a strong recovery from sharp declines in February, when Swiss gold exports dropped by 18% month-on-month to their lowest levels since last August's tariff-related collapse, amid slowing shipments to Britain and India.
Swiss gold exports have been under intense scrutiny over the past six months after the country’s massive gold sector was unsettled by a sudden U.S. Customs decision last August that appeared to impose tariffs on gold bullion exports. Gold exports to the U.S. nearly ceased during that month, with customs data showing shipments from Switzerland plunging by more than 99% to just 0.3 tons in August 2025 compared to July figures.
On March 25, the Swiss Bankers Association (SBA) stated that gold's importance as a store of value would increase in a more fragmented global financial system, though not necessarily through massive price surges. Nina-Alisa Michel, Policy Advisor for Regulation and Economics at the SBA, said recent events prove once again how closely gold prices are linked to global uncertainty.
"Amid geopolitical and economic tensions and rising government debt, demand for safe-haven investments is increasing," she added. However, she noted that despite its role as a safe haven, gold exhibits greater volatility than expected.
"Its price has recently seen sharp movements across different market phases, such as a 14% drop in three days when Donald Trump was nominated as the new U.S. Federal Reserve Chair, which also put assets like silver and Bitcoin under pressure," she continued. She remarked that such moves show gold is not always the safest haven and can react sensitively to geopolitical shifts and monetary policies. She added that geopolitical developments act as a powerful catalyst for gold demand, as investors increasingly seek safe havens amid fragmented global markets, conflicts, and shifting power balances.
As one of the most important hubs in the gold market, Switzerland is highly sensitive to these shifts in demand. Michel wrote that "the gold refinery and trading networks, along with international links, make the banking center that finances these activities extremely sensitive to global political news." She added that increased demand, export restrictions, or international sanctions are reflected directly in the real economy first.
This reality is clearly evident in the country's trade flows. In the first half of 2025 alone, Switzerland exported more than 476 tons of gold—valued at 39 billion Swiss francs—to the United States, where uncertainty, inflation, and fears of rising government debt significantly drove demand.
She noted that retail investors and central banks, along with stablecoins like Tether, play a major role in this demand, with Tether purchasing approximately 70 tons of gold in 2025—more than most central banks. Furthermore, changes in trade policies—whether real or merely speculative—can trigger massive moves in gold; the price rose when the U.S. government appeared to hint at imposing tariffs on gold, then retreated when it was announced that no such plans existed.
Regarding gold's sharp performance in 2026, Michel noted that the year began strongly for the yellow metal. "After an exceptional performance in 2025, the upward trend continued unabated and faster than many market participants expected," she said. She added that at the start of the year, the price was around $4,330 per ounce and rose rapidly during the first few weeks, driven by sustained demand and an unstable environment, breaking records daily in mid-January to reach a historic peak of approximately $5,600 on January 28. Consequently, the price surpassed the psychological level of $5,000 within a few weeks.
However, this sharp upward momentum was not sustainable in the long term; the historic peak of $5,597.23 per ounce was followed by a sharp correction and a period of high volatility. Michel explained that profit-taking and speculation regarding the future of U.S. monetary policy led to a notable correction in late January and early February, with the price dipping below $5,000 at times before gradually stabilizing. Since the outbreak of the Iran war on February 28, gold has witnessed a new decline.
The Swiss Bankers Association believes that gold's future trajectory will be determined not only by isolated events but also by underlying structural trends. Michel explained that geopolitical uncertainty will play a pivotal role; the more global power balances shift, the greater gold's appeal as a strategic reserve. She added that gold's importance to central banks will grow as many seek to diversify their reserves and reduce dependence on traditional currencies.
In this context, monetary policy remains an important factor, not through individual interest rate decisions, but through its impact on risk perception and liquidity conditions. Additionally, inflation volatility and changing interest rate expectations support demand for relatively stable assets.
Michel warned that political signals and regulatory decisions may continue to trigger stronger short-term market reactions than fundamental factors, noting that previous discussions on trade and sanctions showed that mere rumors of new restrictions can affect the market even without implementation.
Overall, there are many reasons to expect that gold will grow in importance as a store of value in a more fragmented and politically sensitive global financial system—not necessarily through large price increases, but through its growing role as a strategic pillar in investment portfolios, government reserves, and international trade.
Michel said the price of gold reflects a "complex story" expressing global uncertainty and market sensitivity to political and economic shocks, alongside its significant role in the decisions of institutional and individual investors. She concluded by stating that gold can be a key element in investment diversification but is not sufficient on its own, adding that stability today comes less from individual asset classes and more from proactive risk management that accounts for geopolitical and regulatory developments.
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