Data from the "Safe Haven Research Center" revealed that local silver prices rose by 6% over the past week, coinciding with a global climb of 4.2% to close at its highest levels since August 2011. This surge was driven by a decline in the US dollar and increasing industrial demand, amidst expectations that the US Federal Reserve will move towards further interest rate cuts in the coming period.
The report explained that the price of an 800-grade silver gram increased from EGP 68 to EGP 74, while the 925-grade recorded about EGP 86, and the 999-grade reached approximately EGP 93. The 925-grade silver pound remained stable at EGP 664.
The Center observed a state of confusion in the local market, where some raw commodity traders raised prices without justification, causing a shortage in supply and forcing some factories to halt production in anticipation of higher price levels.
The report noted that the market "has started to enter a dangerous phase," warning of the potential for illogical price jumps if intervention is not made to regulate prices and prevent monopolistic practices.
Globally, the ounce rose from $48 to $50, marking the third-highest historical level since 1980 and 2011, fueled by increased demand for safe havens amid rising economic and geopolitical turmoil.
The report pointed out that this level is the highest since the Hunt brothers' attempt to corner the market in the 1980s, when silver first touched the $50 mark.
During September, silver achieved significant gains, reaching 27% locally and 20% globally, with the ounce rising from $40 to $48, and the gram from EGP 52 to EGP 66.
Since the beginning of 2025, silver has soared by 81% locally and 73% globally, surpassing gold, which only rose by about 50% during the same period.
Persistent Supply Deficit and Record Demand
The report showed that industrial demand for silver reached a record high of 680.5 million ounces in 2024, driven by the boom in solar energy and electric vehicles. Meanwhile, the market recorded a deficit of 148.9 million ounces for the fourth consecutive year.
This deficit is expected to continue in 2025, reaching 187.6 million ounces, which would be the third-largest historical deficit in the silver market.
Silver Outshines Gold
The report stated that silver has become a "high-sensitivity version of gold," moving in the same direction but at a stronger pace, benefiting from investment momentum and the shift towards safe-haven assets.
The gold-to-silver ratio declined to 81 points, its lowest in a year, reflecting the white metal's stronger performance.
Warnings of Excessive Rises
Metals Focus warned that the rapid price increase might push some industrial sectors to reduce silver consumption, especially in solar energy technologies, despite strong long-term demand.
However, the report emphasized that the structural market deficit will keep prices relatively high over the next two years.
Technical and Historical Analysis
December futures contracts showed a short-term bearish reversal pattern after peaking at $49.96 per ounce, which may indicate a possibility of a temporary price correction before the market resumes its upward trend.
Historically, silver peaked at $50.36 in 1980 and $49.52 in 2011, and today it surpasses these levels for the third time in its century-long history.
Future Forecasts
Saxo Bank predicted in a research note that the white metal will continue its climb toward $100 per ounce by 2026, supported by robust industrial demand and the global shift towards clean energy.
The bank stated: "Silver is the high-beta version of gold; it moves like gold but with stronger effects, making its gains sharper during upward phases."
Analysts believe that silver is no longer cheap compared to gold, and the $50 level may form a strong psychological barrier, but it is not necessarily a permanent ceiling, especially if gold continues its ascent above $4,000 per ounce.
Silver is experiencing a new historical phase, combining record industrial demand, a persistent supply deficit, the global transition to clean energy, and a weak US dollar.
While eyes are on gold as a safe haven, silver appears to be the stronger player in the precious metals scene for 2025, with expectations of further gains if accommodative monetary policies and global economic turbulence persist.
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