Silver Rises 13% Locally and 9% Globally Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Safe-Haven Flows

A report issued by the Safe Haven Center revealed that silver prices in the local market surged by approximately 13% over the past week, while the ounce on global exchanges climbed nearly 9%, driven by strong safe-haven buying amid ongoing geopolitical risks, weaker U.S. growth data, and fresh tariff developments that redirected capital toward precious metals.

According to the report, the price of 999 fine silver rose by about EGP 17 per gram during the week, opening at EGP 133, touching a high of EGP 152, and closing near EGP 150. Globally, the silver ounce gained around $7, rising from $78 at the start of trading to $85 at the close.

Meanwhile, 925 silver recorded EGP 139 per gram, 800 silver reached EGP 120, and the silver pound held steady at EGP 1,112.

Upward Momentum Despite a Firm Dollar

Silver extended its rebound after slipping to a two-week low earlier in the week, regaining bullish momentum on the back of renewed safe-haven demand. Notably, the metal continued to advance despite the generally firm performance of the U.S. dollar, signaling sustained buying interest on price dips.

The latest rally comes amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, alongside significant U.S. military reinforcements in the Middle East. On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he is considering a limited strike against Iran, following remarks the previous day urging Tehran to reach a “meaningful agreement” within 10 to 15 days or face “serious consequences.”

Supportive Fundamentals

Beyond geopolitical drivers, underlying fundamentals remain constructive for silver. Steady institutional inflows, resilient industrial demand, and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts later this year continue to underpin the broader outlook.

Technically, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 66, reflecting strong bullish momentum while remaining below overbought territory, leaving room for further upside.

Silver has increasingly behaved as a macro-sensitive asset, reacting swiftly to shifts in U.S. rate expectations and monetary policy risks—at times outpacing gold in responsiveness. However, its substantial industrial component amplifies volatility, particularly amid fluctuating expectations between slowdown and stagflation scenarios, as well as swings in the dollar and Treasury yields.

Tariffs and Treasury Yields

In a Saturday address, President Donald Trump announced an increase in temporary tariffs on nearly all U.S. imports from 10% to 15%, the maximum permitted under Section 122, which also requires congressional approval for tariffs extending beyond 150 days.

Following the Supreme Court’s ruling on tariffs, U.S. Treasury yields edged higher. The 10-year yield reached 4.083%, while the 2-year yield stood at 3.48%. The U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.14% to 97.75, though it remains on track for its strongest weekly performance since October.

Inflation and Growth Data

According to Reuters, core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation—excluding food and energy—rose 0.4% in December, lifting the annual core rate to 3.0%. With January PCE data due on March 13, economists expect persistent price pressures could delay the Federal Reserve’s next rate cut until after June.

Separately, the preliminary U.S. Composite PMI released by S&P Global declined to 52.3 in February from 53.0 in January. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at S&P Global, noted that the latest reading is consistent with GDP growth of around 1.5% at the start of the year.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is scheduled to speak on February 23 regarding the economic outlook, with markets closely watching for signals on whether policymakers are prioritizing growth risks or maintaining a firm stance against inflation. Investors are also awaiting the U.S. consumer confidence reading, as surprises tend to move Treasury yields and the dollar swiftly—often impacting silver prices in tandem.

Industrial Demand Risks

Despite the positive backdrop, elevated prices pose risks to demand. Following last year’s surge in silver, solar manufacturers have intensified efforts to substitute silver with copper to reduce costs. Estimates cited by Reuters indicate that the photovoltaic solar sector accounts for roughly 17% of global silver demand.

Traders are now focused on the upcoming U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data for January, seen as the next key inflation gauge. Historically, stronger-than-expected readings have fueled concerns over prolonged tight monetary policy, often triggering immediate pressure on silver prices.