Silver Jumps to 14-Year High...999 Purity Reaches 85 EGP

Silver prices saw strong increases in local and international markets during Thursday's trading. This surge was supported by rising bets on interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, which put pressure on the Dollar. Furthermore, growing concerns about a US government shutdown boosted demand for safe-haven assets, according to a report from the "Safe Haven" Research Center.

Local and Global Jumps

The report indicated that local silver prices rose by about 2 EGP during the day's trading. The price of a silver gram of 800 purity reached 68 EGP, while the 999 purity gram rose to 85 EGP, and the 925 purity reached 79 EGP. Meanwhile, the silver pound (925 purity) remained stable at 632 EGP.

Globally, the silver ounce increased by $1 to reach $48, its highest level in 14 years.

Over the last week, silver prices had achieved a jump of about 5 EGP locally, with the 800 purity gram opening at 55 EGP and closing the week at 60 EGP. Globally, the ounce rose to $47.

September Gains

The report noted that silver prices in the local market climbed by 27% during September, an increase of 14 EGP, as the silver gram opened trading at 52 EGP and closed at 66 EGP. In contrast, the global ounce rose by 20%, an increase of $8, closing at $48 after starting the month at $40.

Interest Rate Cut in Egypt

In a parallel context, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Egypt decided at its meeting on Thursday, October 2, 2025, to cut key interest rates by 100 basis points. This brought the overnight deposit rate to 21%, the lending rate to 22%, and the main operation rate to 21.5%. The credit and discount rate was also lowered to 21.5%.

The Committee explained that the decision reflects its assessment of the latest inflation developments and forecasts since the previous meeting.

Strong Performance Since the Start of the Year

The report confirmed that silver locally achieved gains of 66% since the beginning of 2025, with the gram rising from 41 EGP to 68 EGP. Globally, prices jumped from $29 to $48 per ounce, an increase of 62%, making silver one of the best-performing precious metals this year.

The gold-to-silver ratio settled at 82 ounces of silver for one ounce of gold.

Dollar Pressure and US Data

The continued weakness of the US Dollar has contributed to strengthening global demand for dollar-denominated metals, as they become relatively cheaper for foreign buyers. Additionally, the US government shutdown is adding more pressure to the economy and delaying the release of key data such as unemployment claims and factory orders. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) confirmed that it will suspend most of its activities during the shutdown period, which may lead to the postponement of the Non-Farm Payrolls report.

Recent employment data from ADP came in weaker than expected, with the private sector losing 32,000 jobs in September compared to expectations of a 50,000 job gain. Pessimism increased further with the revision of August data to a loss of 3,000 jobs after initially pointing to a gain of 54,000.

Fed Policies and Market Expectations

The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that markets are pricing in an almost 99% probability of a Fed interest rate cut in October, and an 87% probability of an additional cut in December. This keeps US Treasury yields at low levels (the 10-year at 4.09% and the 30-year at 4.70%), which supports non-yielding precious metals.

Supply and Demand Factors

In addition to the weak Dollar and low interest rates, silver prices are supported by supply shortage concerns. The Silver Institute expects the global market deficit to continue for the fifth consecutive year in 2025, projecting production of 844 million ounces against a demand exceeding 940 million ounces.

India also contributed to bolstering global demand after doubling its imports of precious metals, including silver, in September compared to August. This was due to banks and jewelers seeking to increase inventories ahead of the festival season and preempt rising import taxes, according to trade and government data reported by Reuters.