Silver Achieves 6.6% Weekly Gains Globally Amidst Local Stability

Silver prices in the local market witnessed a state of stability during Saturday's trading, coinciding with the global stock exchange's weekly holiday. This follows the ounce recording weekly gains of approximately 6.6%, supported by the decline of the US dollar and the cooling of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, according to the "Marsad al-Dhahab" report for economic studies.

Dr. Walid Farouk, researcher in gold and jewelry affairs and director of the "Marsad al-Dhahab," stated that the local market recorded relative stability compared to yesterday's closing. The price of a gram of 999-grade silver reached approximately 132 EGP, 925-grade reached about 122 EGP, and 800-grade reached about 106 EGP, while the silver coin (pound) recorded about 978 EGP.

On the global front, the ounce rose by about $5 during the week to close at $81, according to Silver Institute data. This came after recording strong gains during Friday's trading that exceeded 4%, driven by the dollar's decline and markets' reassessment of US monetary policy expectations.

During trading, silver continued its ascent for the fourth consecutive week, hitting a five-week high of $83 per ounce before trimming gains to settle near $81 by the end of the week.

This positive performance came amidst a noticeable improvement in geopolitical conditions following Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's announcement regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial navigation during the ceasefire period. This contributed to calming the markets after weeks of tension in one of the world's most vital maritime corridors.

This development led to a drop in oil prices by more than 10%, as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell to approximately $80 per barrel in one of the largest recent daily declines. This coincided with US stocks rising to record levels and a decline in inflation risk premiums.

The fall in energy prices helped ease inflationary pressures, prompting investors to reprice the path of US monetary policy and increasing expectations for interest rate cuts in the coming period. Current estimates indicate a 38.2% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut by year-end, up from 25.9% the previous day, according to CME FedWatch Tool data.

Investors are expected to closely monitor developments in potential negotiations between the United States and Iran, alongside statements from Federal Reserve officials, before the blackout period preceding the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on April 28 and 29.

Medium-Term Outlook and Supply Deficit

In the medium term, opportunities for silver to rise remain high, supported by a persistent supply deficit. The Silver Institute and Metals Focus warned of a continued deficit for the sixth consecutive year, with approximately 762 million ounces withdrawn from global inventories since 2021, raising increasing concerns about liquidity.

Industrial demand—particularly from the electronics and solar energy sectors—continues to provide strong support for prices amidst the global shift toward clean energy, despite fluctuations in investment demand based on geopolitical variables.

However, some analysts believe that the deficit alone may not be enough to push prices back to the record levels recorded in January, given the difficulty of maintaining trading above the resistance level of $80 per ounce.

While analysts do not rule out a return to record levels exceeding $120 per ounce, they point out that such surges could cause a radical shift in market dynamics. High prices may reduce demand and stimulate an increase in supply, subsequently changing the market direction.

Historical Context and Volatility

Historical data show that current movements resemble previous sharp upward waves. Since mid-2025, silver has risen to approximately 2.6 times its ten-year moving average, a pattern similar to what occurred during the 2011 boom.

Furthermore, silver’s volatility over the last 180 days has risen to more than five times that of the S&P 500, marking some of the highest levels recorded since 1980—when the metal's price approached $50 per ounce (a level repeated in 2011 and only recently surpassed).

According to the Silver Institute's annual survey, a deficit of 46.3 million ounces is expected this year, with a projected 3% decline in industrial demand due to a 19% drop in solar sector consumption. Conversely, investment demand is likely to be the primary market driver during 2026, with expectations of an 18% increase supported by inflows of approximately 30 tons into silver-backed ETFs.