Scenes from the US Presidential Election & Pre-Counting Forecasts

The U.S. presidential election is capturing extensive international media attention, with the pre-election period marked by intense statements from both candidates and their supporters. 

Among the most notable statements was from Elon Musk, who warned on the eve of the election that if Trump does not win, “there may never be another election.” Musk went as far as expressing, through a post on X (formerly Twitter), his concerns about the “waning pressures being exerted” against Trump, whom, he claimed, opponents have tried to bankrupt, imprison, and politically undermine multiple times.

Political analysts have pointed out that this election could be the most expensive in history, given the amount of donations and expenditures for each campaign. 

Trump’s campaign raised $1.8 billion, spending approximately $1.6 billion, while Harris’s campaign amassed $2.3 billion, with expenditures totaling around $1.9 billion. The election race officially kicked off in Iowa, the state traditionally opening the primaries.

A significant focus has also been on the "swing states" and their impact on each candidate's chances. These states are key in discussions across political talk shows, as they are prone to shifting from Republican to Democrat and vice versa, unlike other states with a firmly established party identity.

Swing states have thus become the main battleground where candidates vie for electoral vote weight in states that otherwise lean solidly toward one party.

Major news networks, both in the U.S. and abroad, have conducted polls to gauge candidates’ chances and voting trends in the days leading up to the election. 

CNN, a network that notably clashed with Trump during his previous presidency, reported that the majority of voters had already decided on their candidate by September 2024.

Media estimates suggest the race between Harris and Trump is neck-and-neck, with many predictions hinging on the outcomes in seven states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Nevada). 

Some research centers indicate that Harris could win if she secures just three of these swing states, whereas Trump’s chances rely on a scenario in which he wins three specific states: Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia.

As for the prominent issues guiding voter decisions in the 2024 election, American voters are largely influenced by topics such as the economy, immigration and border security, healthcare, abortion rights, democracy, education, climate policy, and foreign policy. Notably, abortion is a key issue for Harris supporters, while Trump’s base prioritizes immigration.

One of the most notable observations is that foreign policy ranks low on the list of American voter priorities. While Trump is seen as experienced in international affairs, Harris’s relative inexperience raises questions among analysts regarding her ability to craft an effective foreign policy, especially amid global turbulence. 

This includes the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and escalating conflicts in the Middle East. Reuters published a report highlighting the anticipation among global investors, who are bracing for potential market volatility in response to the election results.