Russia Cuts Interest Rate by 50 Basis Points to 15%

The Central Bank of Russia lowered its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 15% on Friday, in line with market expectations, signaling cautious optimism concerning inflation path despite global uncertainty.

In its monetary policy statement, the bank noted that price growth slowed in February as anticipated, following a temporary acceleration in January. However, it warned that external conditions have become “significantly more uncertain.”

The central bank had previously raised its inflation forecast for 2026 to a range of 4.5%–5.5%, while maintaining its expectation that inflation will return to its 4% target by 2027.

On an annual basis, inflation eased slightly to 5.79% as of March 16, down from 5.84% a week earlier.

The bank’s decision comes as Russia continues to benefit from rising global commodity prices, particularly oil, amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Increased revenues from energy exports have supported the Russian economy, especially with partial easing of some restrictions on Russian oil. 

The rate cut makes Russia something of an outlier among major economies, where central banks have largely warned of renewed inflationary pressures driven by higher energy costs and ongoing supply chain disruptions linked to geopolitical conflicts.