OPEC+ Agrees Tentatively on Modest Output Increase Without UAE

The OPEC+ reached a preliminary agreement to implement a modest increase in oil production targets, even as the United Arab Emirates exits the group, according to sources familiar with the discussions ahead of a key policy meeting.

Seven member countries have agreed in principle to raise output by around 188,000 barrels per day in June. The move follows a similar increase of 206,000 barrels per day approved last month, but notably excludes the UAE’s share after its unexpected withdrawal from the alliance, effective May 1.

Despite the decision, the increase is widely seen as largely symbolic under current conditions. Ongoing disruptions linked to the conflict involving Iran and regional tensions have severely impacted oil flows, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy shipments.

The conflict, which escalated in late February, has led to a sharp decline in exports from key Gulf producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait, in addition to the UAE prior to its departure. Before the crisis, these nations were among the few within OPEC+ capable of ramping up production.

Meanwhile, Iran, an OPEC member but not part of the seven-country agreement, has also seen its exports decline due to tightened U.S. restrictions imposed in April.

According to recent OPEC data, total crude production across OPEC+ members fell to 35.06 million barrels per day in March, marking a significant drop of 7.7 million barrels per day compared to February levels. The steepest declines were recorded in Saudi Arabia and Iraq, largely due to export constraints.

Outside the Gulf, Russia has also reduced output after its oil infrastructure was hit by Ukrainian drone attacks, further tightening global supply.

The seven countries involved in the latest agreement, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman, are expected to hold a virtual meeting on Sunday to finalize the decision. With the UAE’s exit, OPEC+ now consists of 21 members, although recent production decisions have been driven primarily by this smaller core group.