Oil Prices Could Surge to $200 if Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed, Energy Expert Warns

Global oil prices could spike dramatically if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, with Brent crude potentially reaching as high as $200 per barrel in a prolonged disruption, according to international energy consultant Mamdouh Salameh.

Salameh said that even a short-term closure of the strategic waterway would trigger sharp price increases, predicting that Brent crude could surpass $120 per barrel within days due to immediate supply concerns.

He described the potential crisis as unprecedented in the history of the oil market, citing the Strait’s critical role in global energy flows. A shutdown lasting up to six months could push prices into a range between $150 and $200 per barrel, driven by severe disruptions to supply chains.

The impact, he noted, would likely persist even after the waterway reopens. Gulf producers may struggle to ramp up output quickly, limiting their ability to stabilize markets. As a result, oil prices could remain elevated between $90 and $100 per barrel for an extended period following the crisis.

Salameh added that major economies would respond differently based on their capabilities. Countries such as China, United States, India, and members of the European Union possess a range of tools to mitigate supply shortages. He suggested that China, in particular, could leverage its strategic ties with Russia to secure alternative energy supplies.