Oil Prices Climb as Traders Doubt US–Iran Breakthrough amid Ongoing Hormuz Uncertainty

Global oil prices rose in early Friday trading after investors grew increasingly skeptical that ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran would deliver a meaningful agreement, as uncertainty continues to cloud the outlook for Middle East energy flows.

Brent crude futures climbed to $104.80 per barrel, up 2.13% on the day, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose to $97.99, gaining 1.70%, according to market data.

Latest Oil Prices:

WTI Crude $97.49 +1.14 +1.18%

Brent Crude $104.2 +1.65 +1.61%

Murban Crude $102.2 -1.07 -1.04%

WTI Midland $97.82 -1.80 -1.81%

Opec Basket $115.4 -2.71 -2.29%

Indian Basket $108.9 -3.45 -3.07%

Natural Gas $2.993 -0.025 -0.83%

Gasoline $3.424 +0.045 +1.32%

Heating Oil $3.871 +0.039 +1.03%

The rebound followed a roughly 2% decline in the previous session, when traders briefly priced in optimism over potential diplomatic progress. However, sentiment quickly reversed after conflicting statements from both sides of the negotiations.

A senior Iranian source told Reuters that no final agreement had been reached, although some gaps in discussions had narrowed. At the same time, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there were “some good signs” in talks but warned that any attempt by Iran to impose restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz would be unacceptable.

Market participants remain focused on the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global oil shipments passes. Continued uncertainty over its security has kept energy traders highly sensitive to political developments in the region.

Analysts say oil markets have become increasingly reactive to diplomatic headlines, with prices swinging sharply on expectations of progress, only to reverse when negotiations fail to produce concrete outcomes.

At the same time, tightening physical oil supply conditions are adding further pressure to global markets. Falling inventories and persistent supply constraints have raised concerns about inflationary spillovers across transportation and manufacturing sectors worldwide.

Some industry officials have also warned that full normalization of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz could take an extended period even after any potential resolution of hostilities, prolonging supply risks.

With limited short-term alternatives to replace disrupted flows, markets remain highly sensitive to any signals regarding diplomatic negotiations, military escalation, or changes in maritime security conditions in the region.