Oil Heads for Weekly Losses Amid Rising Supply Expectations

Oil prices extended their decline for a third straight session on Friday, putting the market on track for its first weekly loss in three weeks. 

Concerns over rising supply, coupled with a surprise increase in U.S. crude inventories, weighed heavily on sentiment and raised fears of weakening demand.

Data released earlier this week showed U.S. crude stocks rising by 2.4 million barrels, defying analysts’ expectations of a drawdown. The unexpected build added pressure on prices already grappling with signs of surplus supply.

Brent crude futures were down $1.33, or 1.99%, at $65.66 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slid $1.36, or 2.14%, to $62.12. On a weekly basis, Brent is down 3.6% and WTI has lost 2.95%.

Latest Oil Prices: 

WTI Crude • 62.01 -1.47 -2.32%

Brent Crude • 65.65 -1.34 -2.00%

Murban Crude • 67.71 -1.55 -2.24%

Louisiana Light • 66.46 -1.46 -2.15%

Bonny Light • 78.62 -2.30 -2.84%

Opec Basket • 71.32 +0.00 +0.00%

Mars US • 671 days 71.28 -0.98 -1.36%

Gasoline • 1.969 -0.041 -2.02%

Natural Gas • 3.040 -0.034 -1.11%

“There is a growing stream of data and headlines pointing toward a future where supply is no longer an issue,” said John Evans of PVM Oil Associates.

Markets are also bracing for the outcome of Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting, where the alliance – led by Saudi Arabia and Russia – is expected to push more barrels into the market in an effort to reclaim market share.

Any additional output could have a significant impact, as the group is already set to unwind part of its earlier production cuts totaling around 1.65 million barrels per day, equal to roughly 1.6% of global demand.

“If the eight core OPEC+ members agree on further increases, we expect significant downward pressure on oil prices, especially as the risk of oversupply is already tangible,” analysts at Commerzbank wrote in a note.

Despite the bearish supply outlook, geopolitical risks continue to lend support. A White House official said President Donald Trump told European leaders on Thursday that Europe must stop buying Russian oil.

Any disruption to Russian crude exports or broader supply shocks could send prices higher, analysts warn.

“There remains a risk that Western powers could step up sanctions against Russia in an attempt to pressure President Vladimir Putin into negotiations,” analysts at J.P. Morgan said Friday.

Oil storage tanks in Osaka Bay, Japan Source: Bloomberg