Oil Heads for Longest Monthly Deline in Over Two Years

Oil prices are on track for their longest monthly decline in more than two years, with traders closely watching this week’s OPEC+ meeting and assessing U.S. diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded near $59 a barrel, slightly above Wednesday’s close ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, while Brent hovered above $63. U.S. crude is on pace for a fourth consecutive monthly loss in November, its longest such stretch since early 2023.

Latest Oil Prices:

WTI Crude $59.01 +0.36 +0.61%

Brent Crude $63.27 -0.07 -0.11%

Murban Crude $65.29 +0.52 +0.80%

Louisiana Light $60.35 -0.56 -0.92%

Bonny Light $78.62 -2.30 -2.84%

Opec Basket $63.21 -0.22 -0.35%

Mars US $70.36 -0.96 -1.35%

Gasoline $1.924 +0.035 +1.83%

Natural Gas $4.643 +0.085 +1.86%

The OPEC+ alliance is set to meet virtually on Sunday, and delegates say the group will likely maintain its plan to freeze output increases in early 2026. If confirmed, market attention will shift to a longer-term review of member states’ production capacities, a sensitive issue within the coalition.

WTI has fallen 18% so far this year, weighed down by expectations of a global supply surplus. Prices have come under pressure as OPEC+ restores some previously curtailed output and as non-OPEC producers inject additional barrels into the market.

Analysts at JPMorgan Chase project the oil market will face a surplus of 2.8 million barrels per day next year and 2.7 million barrels per day in 2027, raising concerns about prolonged oversupply.

On the geopolitical front, Russian President Vladimir Putin said proposals put forth by U.S. President Donald Trump to end the conflict in Ukraine could form the basis for future agreements, signaling renewed openness to negotiations. U.S. presidential envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to visit Moscow next week.

Any breakthrough in the conflict would have major implications for the oil market. Russia, one of the world’s largest producers, has seen its crude exports restricted by extensive Western sanctions, and a peace deal could pave the way for sanctioned supply to flow more freely to buyers such as China, India, and Turkey.