Oil Dips with Strait of Hormuz Tensions Testing Ceasefire

Oil prices fell at the end of the week, retreating below the $100 threshold as markets weighed a fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran against continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil corridors.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled down $1.30, or 1.33%, at $96.57 a barrel, while Brent crude slipped 72 cents, or 0.75%, to $95.20 a barrel. The declines came after a volatile session in which both benchmarks briefly traded above $100, highlighting persistent uncertainty in global energy markets.

Latest Oil Prices:

WTI Crude $96.57 -1.30 -1.33%

Brent Crude $95.20 -0.72 -0.75%

Murban Crude $98.16 -1.46 -1.47%

Natural Gas $2.648 -0.022 -0.82%

Gasoline $3.037 +0.037 +1.22%

Heating Oil $3.762 -0.175 -4.46%

WTI Midland $100.9 -1.67 -1.63%

Opec Basket $107.3 +0.29 +0.27%

Indian Basket $120.3 +4.76 +4.12%

Despite a two-week ceasefire agreement, shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained. The waterway, responsible for roughly one-fifth of global oil flows prior to the conflict, has yet to return to normal operations, with most recent tanker movements reportedly limited and heavily skewed toward Iranian vessels.

Shipping executives describe the situation as effectively “closed,” citing a lack of clear navigation protocols and communication channels. Tankers that do attempt passage are reportedly taking unconventional routes closer to the Iranian coastline, reflecting heightened security risks and operational confusion.

The pressure on the market added after strikes on the of energy infrastructures in Saudi Arabia, which have reduced oil production by an estimated 600,000 barrels per day and disrupted flows the east-west pipeline, one of the kingdom’s key export alternatives to Hormuz.

These disruptions are forcing producers and traders alike to reassess supply chains, while buyers increasingly turn to strategic reserves and alternative sources to meet demand.

Meanwhile, U.S. officials have warned Tehran against imposing transit fees on oil tankers, arguing that such measures risk undermining the already tenuous ceasefire. President Donald Trump signaled that further escalation could trigger a stronger response, adding another layer of geopolitical risk to already jittery markets.

Analysts say oil markets are now caught between competing forces: tightening supply due to geopolitical disruptions and the posibility of demand destruction as elevated fuel prices weigh on global consumption.

With Gulf oil flows reduced to below 2 million barrels per day and shipping delays stretching into weeks, traders are bracing for continued volatility. Some estimates suggest markets may need to rely on запас inventories for at least another month before supply routes stabilize, if they do at all.

For now, the oil market remains highly sensitive to headlines, with any meaningful reopening of the Strait of Hormuz likely to trigger sharp price swings.