Local gold prices gain 3.2% in a week as global ounce rises on geopolitical tensions

Gold prices in the Egyptian market rose by 3.2% over the past week, in tandem with a 1.3% increase in the global ounce, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for the precious metal as a safe haven, according to a report issued by the iSagha platform.

Saeed Embabi, Executive Director of the platform, said that 21-karat gold rose by approximately EGP 215 over the week, opening trading at EGP 6,710 and closing at EGP 6,925. Globally, the ounce increased by about $78, climbing from $5,043 to $5,108 by the end of the week.

Meanwhile, 24-karat gold recorded EGP 7,914 per gram, 18-karat gold reached EGP 5,936, and the gold pound stood at approximately EGP 55,400.

U.S. data heightens market volatility

Global gold gains came after data showed a slowdown in U.S. economic growth, with core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation exceeding 3%, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

At the same time, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against the legality of tariffs imposed under the National Emergencies Act, boosting risk appetite and helping U.S. equities pare losses and turn higher.

Gold reclaimed the $5,000-per-ounce level ahead of the weekend, as investors sought hedges amid rising geopolitical risks and the possibility of a military confrontation between the United States and Iran.

The move followed a large-scale U.S. military buildup in the region ordered by President Donald Trump, including aircraft carriers, fighter jets, and reconnaissance aircraft — the largest American deployment since the Iraq War — reviving concerns over Middle East stability and the potential impact of any conflict on energy markets and global inflation.

Despite regaining this key psychological level, gold’s weekly gains remain relatively modest, reflecting a cautious stance among investors.

Slower growth, weaker consumer confidence

GDP data showed annual growth slowing to 1.4%, down from 4.4% previously. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell from 57.3 to 56.6, as U.S. households continued to signal pressure from elevated prices.

One-year inflation expectations declined to 3.4%, while five-year expectations held steady at 3.3%.

Markets are still pricing in two 25-basis-point rate cuts this year, amid speculation over the future direction of U.S. monetary policy.

Gold between central bank demand and bullish forecasts

Gold continues to consolidate above $5,000 per ounce. Although the path higher may not be smooth, major financial institutions maintain bullish long-term outlooks.

UBS outlined a scenario that could push gold toward $6,200 by mid-2026. Bank of Montreal (BMO) sees a strong bullish case targeting $6,500, while ANZ expects prices to reach $5,800 per ounce in the second quarter. Goldman Sachs projects gold at $5,400 by the end of 2026, supported by institutional demand and a potential return of retail investors.

JPMorgan analysts noted that while a slowdown in central bank purchases could theoretically limit further gains, this scenario appears unlikely in the near term, given the gap between gold’s share in emerging market reserves (19%) and that of advanced economies (47%).

Notable Russian moves

Official data showed that Russia’s central bank reduced its gold holdings by around 300,000 ounces in January to 74.5 million ounces — the first decline since October — taking advantage of record-high prices that exceeded $5,600 per ounce last month.

Despite the sale, the total value of Russia’s gold reserves rose by 23% to $402.7 billion, supported by higher global prices.

Gold remains supported by geopolitical tensions, slower U.S. growth, and continued central bank diversification. However, movements in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields are likely to remain the key drivers shaping the pace of gains in the coming period, amid persistent global uncertainty and elevated market volatility.