Iran, Israel & Global Order: Law of Force & Allure of Influence

Any strategic expert will tell you that the future of the international order and the nature of future conflicts cannot be predicted with precision. 

Yet, current global events suggest one undeniable truth: the law of force is prevailing—now and likely in the future. This means many international laws will remain ink on paper, and numerous global organizations will sink into deep slumber. 

This situation is expected to persist for years, if not decades, reinforcing global hypocrisy and double standards that serve the interests of major powers, while further entrenching the divide between the Global South and the dominant actors in the world order. It will also exacerbate tensions even among the great powers themselves.

Russia’s intervention in Ukraine has dragged on for years, and Western support for Kyiv has neither halted Russian advances nor stopped violations of international law—despite sanctions. On the contrary, President Vladimir Putin appears to be regaining his footing on the global stage to the extent that former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks with him for hours and even suggests he join—at least symbolically—the ranks of key mediators between Israel and Iran.

Meanwhile, after the October 7, 2023 attacks, Israel moved to eliminate Iran’s regional proxies, starting with Hamas and then Hezbollah. It also withdrew its tacit acceptance of the Assad regime in Syria, and eventually ignited a direct confrontation with Iran. At the same time, the United States launched airstrikes against the Houthis in Yemen, ending with an understanding to protect U.S. interests, including ships and military bases.

These great powers—especially the United States—cannot be subjected to comprehensive sanctions, nor can they be struck with missiles that dismantle their regimes. Nor can they be held accountable for violating international law or bypassing Security Council approval. Instead, they are the ones who impose punishment, block international court rulings, and shield their allies from accountability. Others must either comply with this reality—or brace for catastrophe.

Iran, for its part, was deluded into thinking it stood untouchable, surrounded by loyal proxies across the region who adhered to the principle of allegiance to the Supreme Leader. It armed and financed them, believing it had mastered sectarian manipulation, and that this strategy successfully advanced Iran’s national interests. Iran had embedded itself within the regional order, blackmailed its adversaries, and institutionalized a doctrine: if regional wars were to occur, they would always unfold on others’ territory—not its own.

Iran grew arrogant, as did some Arab intellectuals who saw the prolonged nuclear negotiations as little more than a Shakespearean play starring Iran and Israel, with the U.S. as the chief scriptwriter. But it was never a theatrical act. The Israelis spent years meticulously preparing to dismantle the foundations of the Iranian regime. They mastered deception, secrecy, and surprise. Mossad agents transcended borders and maps, recruited spies, and established operational cells across Iran. The country now hosts covert Israeli weapons, drones, and bomb production sites—straight out of a Hollywood thriller.

Iranian leaders were blindsided by the vulnerabilities in their own defenses that allowed Israel to dominate the skies and assassinate generals and nuclear scientists. They failed to realize that the United States and Israel are effectively one body. Despite occasional contradictions in statements from Washington and Tel Aviv, their doctrines, interests, and military-strategic coordination are unified. When it comes to existential issues, Western countries do not override the desires of the Israeli state.

Iran also assumed that Israeli governments are bound by democratic elections, and that voters would overthrow any administration that drags the country into a prolonged war costing lives and infrastructure. But they ignored the reality that in existential wars, such governments do not collapse—they grow stronger and more willing to bear the cost, especially when handed a blank check by the U.S. and its allies.

The situation is grim and deeply complex. The future will be ruled by the law of force—not the force of law. International organizations, including the United Nations, will become ceremonial and ineffective. Nations will be compelled to align with the superpowers—and woe to those who resist or object. The global arms race will intensify in a world already gripped by more than 57 active conflict zones and over 200 armed groups, with the economic toll of these conflicts nearing $17 trillion. These are unprecedented figures in the history of humanity.