Just a few hours are separating us from the most-awaited event in 2020; the US presidential elections will kick off between Republican President Donald Trump and his Democratic rival, Joe Biden, amid a highly charged atmosphere between the two parties.
The whole world, especially the Arab and middle east region are paying great attention to these elections, waiting for the new American president, as many questions aroused about the fate of many regional issues if any party wins.
According to a report published by CNN, there is an eerie calm hangs over the Middle East from the outcome of the elections and its impact on the Arab region, indicating that this calm reflects the trepidation of regional heads looking to Washington to see If there would be a change in its policy towards the Middle East.
Many experts believe that these elections could change the political calculus of the major players in the Middle East, starting from the fate of the Iranian nuclear agreement, to Trump's so-called "the deal of the century" between Israel and Palestine, as well as the normalization agreements between a number of Arab states (UAE, Bahrain, Sudan) and Israel.
American Military Presence in the Middle East Region
The CNN report also pointed out that both Trump and Biden agree that the American military presence in the region should be reduced to the lowest possible degree. In case of need, there should remain between 1,5000 to 2000 soldiers from the US Special Forces to work with local partners in confronting terrorist groups like ISIS, especially in Syria and Iraq.
On his part, Biden described the situation in the countries where American forces are deployed (Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan) as 'complicated' and he cannot pledge to completely withdraw American forces from them in the near future.
Palestinian Issue
The report considered Trump's role in normalizing ties between the Arab states and Israel as one of the best achievements, which Biden welcomed, saying that he would push many Arab countries to establish peace with Israel. Yet, he criticized Trump's unilateral policy in dealing with the Israel and Palestine file.
In this regard, Biden believes that the steps taken by Trump undermine the principle of a two-state solution, and will reconsider all the steps taken by the Trump administration, except for the issue of moving the US embassy to Jerusalem.
According to the 'Jerusalem Post', Biden will acknowledge the demands of the Palestinian side with regard to Jerusalem.
Netanyahu Backs Trump
According to a report published by "BBC", Biden will face various obstacles represented in the right-wing Israeli government led by Benjamin Netanyahu, who enjoys close relations at all levels with Trump and the surrounding circle; a matter which enabled him to achieve all his demands concerning the Palestinian issue, the Iranian file, and other issues.
The Gulf States Hopes for Trump Victory
Officials in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain made it clear that the Gulf states support the re-election of US President Donald Trump, through encouraging moderate Muslims in the US to vote for him, according to a report published by the Israeli newspaper "Israel Hayom".
Moreover, the Israeli newspaper quoted a senior Emirati diplomat as saying, "We have one eye on the US Presidential elections. We hope for Trump's victory, but we are preparing for the possibility of a new president entering the Oval Room in the White House," noting that Trump's election campaign has obtained millions of dollars from Muslim supporters.
The newspaper also quoted a senior official in Manama, describing him as "close to the ruling circles in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi", as saying that "Moderate Sunni Arab countries are concerned that Trump will be defeated, and his Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, will lead to a change of Washington's policy towards the Middle East."
Normalization Deals between the Arab States and Israel
The diplomat added, "There are preparations for in case of the complete change in the new administration’s policy towards the Middle East. Neither scenario would affect the deals signed with Israel so far with the understanding that we are dependent on one another, hence, we don't need constant backing from the Americans."
Concerning the recent reports of an expected normalization deal to be signed between Saudi Arabia and Israel before the American elections, the newspaper quoted a senior Arab diplomat as saying that these are only "speculations".
The diplomat also added that Saudi Arabia supports Abraham Accords and encourages other countries to take part in the process, noting that Riyadh also has its own set of very clear considerations, and the Palestinian issue is a key factor.
"Saudi Arabia will not renounce the Arab peace initiative it has conceived so quickly. The agreement with Saudi Arabia will come, but in its own time," he said.
Iranian file
Many in Iran and Iraq are counting on Joe Biden's victory in the US presidential elections, as they believe that he will improve the tense relationship between Iran and its Iraqi followers on one hand, as well as the United States and the rest of the world on the other hand, according to Sky News website.
They also hope that the new president will return to the nuclear deal, from which Trump withdrew in 2018, and ease the escalating US sanctions on Iran since the current regime came to power in 1979.
They are deeply optimistic and forget that there is no disagreement among the Americans on their attitude towards Iran, but, the main point of contention was President Trump's decision to withdraw from the nuclear agreement.
Even if Biden's strategies and point of views differ from President Trump, he will not be able to ignore the dangerous developments that occurred during the past four years, which witnessed Iran's incursion into Iraq and the region, and its blatant and illegal interference in the internal affairs of the countries of the region.
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