Gold prices in local and global markets continued their ascent during Thursday's trading, registering new record levels, driven by increasing trade tensions between the United States and China and the ongoing state of global political and economic uncertainty, according to a report issued by the "iSagha" platform, which specializes in gold and jewelry trading.
Saeed Embabi, the executive director of the platform, said that gold prices jumped by about EGP 70 in the local market compared to the end of Wednesday's trading, with the price of 21-carat gold recording around EGP 5,720, while the ounce globally rose by about $40 to record $4,240.
He pointed out that 24-carat gold registered about EGP 6,537, 18-carat gold reached EGP 4,903, while 14-carat gold recorded about EGP 3,814, and the price of the gold pound stabilized at EGP 45,760.
Gold prices had risen yesterday, Wednesday, by about EGP 95, with 21-carat gold opening at EGP 5,555 and closing at EGP 5,650, while the ounce climbed from $4,149 to $4,200.
Global Gold Performance
Gold registered a new rise near the $4,247 per ounce level, continuing its consecutive gains amid growing demand for safe havens. The precious metal has risen by about 10% since the beginning of the month, and by more than 60% since the start of the year.
Escalating Trade Tensions
The trade confrontation between Washington and Beijing remains at the forefront, following the announcement by US President Donald Trump of plans to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting from November 1, in response to China's decision to tighten export controls on rare earth elements. This has raised fears of a full-scale trade war that threatens global growth.
In contrast, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bissant said that Washington is ready for dialogue, confirming that Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping this month in South Korea, with the possibility of extending the trade truce if Beijing reverses its new restrictions.
US Government Shutdown
The US government shutdown, which has been ongoing for three weeks, has increased pressure on the markets, especially with the Senate failing for the ninth time to pass the funding bill. This comes amidst warnings that mass layoffs of federal employees could exceed 10,000 workers, with estimated economic losses of about $15 billion per week.
US Monetary Policy
Stephen Miran, Governor of the Federal Reserve, expected that the new tariffs would lead to a limited rise in inflation, while maintaining the US economic growth rate at 2% in 2025.
The CME FedWatch tool shows that markets are pricing in a 96.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the October meeting, and a 93.7% probability of a similar cut in December.
Forecasts from Major Banks
Major financial institutions believe that gold has not yet peaked; Bank of America raised its forecast to $5,000 per ounce by 2026, while Goldman Sachs targets the $4,900 level, and ANZ Bank raised its forecast to $4,400 by the end of 2025 with a potential peak at $4,600 mid-2026.
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