Goldman Sachs Projects 4–6% Rise in Global GDP by 2030

Goldman Sachs projected that advances in artificial intelligence could increase global gross domestic product by between 4% and 6% by 2030, according to a new AI-driven “mega-trends” model.

The report suggests that the rapid expansion of AI technologies may provide a significant boost to global economic output, building on historical productivity surges seen during major technological revolutions such as the introduction of electricity in the early 20th century and the information and communications technology boom in the late 1990s.

Goldman Sachs estimates that artificial intelligence alone could contribute roughly 0.5 percentage points to annual global productivity growth over the next decade, reinforcing expectations of a structurally stronger long-term growth path.

However, the report also warns that these gains may be partially offset by major structural challenges facing the global economy.

These include rising sovereign debt burdens across multiple countries and accelerating demographic aging trends, both of which are expected to weigh on long-term economic expansion.

The bank’s model suggests that the positive economic impact of AI could be significantly diluted as fiscal pressures and aging populations counterbalance productivity improvements, creating a complex tug-of-war between technological efficiency and macroeconomic constraints.

Despite strong optimism surrounding AI’s transformative potential, Goldman Sachs cautioned that the net effect on global growth will depend on how effectively economies manage debt sustainability and demographic transitions over the coming years.