Gold rises locally and globally on weaker dollar, markets await U.S. jobs data

Gold prices advanced in the local market and on the global exchange during Wednesday’s trading, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and declining Treasury yields, as investors await the release of U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for clearer signals on the Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy steps, according to a report by the iSagha platform.

Saeed Embaby, CEO of iSagha, said local gold prices climbed by about EGP 55 during today’s session, with 21-karat gold reaching EGP 6,780 per gram. Globally, the ounce rose by around $44 to trade near $5,077.

The report noted that 24-karat gold recorded approximately EGP 7,749 per gram, while 18-karat gold stood at about EGP 5,811 per gram. The gold pound coin reached roughly EGP 54,240.

The precious metal’s gains were driven by a drop in the U.S. dollar index to its lowest level in nearly two weeks, enhancing the appeal of dollar-denominated gold for overseas buyers. Meanwhile, yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell to their lowest level in about a month after data showed retail sales were flat at 0.0% month-on-month in December, below expectations of a 0.4% increase, alongside downward revisions to October and November figures.

Lower bond yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, thereby supporting demand.

According to a Reuters survey, the closely watched Labor Department report on nonfarm payrolls, due later today, is expected to show an increase of around 70,000 jobs in January, compared with 50,000 jobs added in December. The unemployment rate is projected to remain steady at 4.4%, while average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year.

Market expectations, based on the CME FedWatch tool, indicate the possibility of two rate cuts this year, with a 49% probability that the first cut could come in June. However, weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data, followed by soft consumer price index (CPI) figures on Friday, could increase the likelihood of an earlier rate cut in April, currently estimated at 36%.

The January employment report had been postponed last week due to the partial U.S. government shutdown, heightening market sensitivity to today’s release.

President Donald Trump renewed his call for lower interest rates in an interview with Fox Business, stating that the United States should have the lowest interest rates in the world and urging a reduction of about two percentage points, while criticizing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

In contrast, several Fed officials struck a more cautious tone. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack suggested policymakers could hold rates steady for an extended period until inflation returns to the 2% target. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan also said it would require more noticeable cooling in the labor market before rate cuts would be appropriate.

While stronger-than-expected data could exert short-term downward pressure on gold by supporting the dollar and delaying rate cuts, broader macroeconomic factors—including ongoing geopolitical and economic risks and sustained central bank demand—continue to underpin a constructive outlook for the precious metal.