Gold prices in Egypt surged by roughly 8% last week, driven by a 6% rise in the global ounce, amid escalating trade tensions between the United States and China and persistent global political and economic uncertainty, according to a report by Ai Sagha, the gold and jewelry trading platform.
Saeed Imbabi, CEO of the platform, said that 21-carat gold rose by about EGP 350 per gram during the week — opening at EGP 5,400, touching a record high of EGP 5,850, and closing at EGP 5,750.
Globally, gold gained about $237, climbing from $4,017 to a record $4,380 per ounce before ending the week at $4,254.
Locally, 24-carat gold recorded EGP 6,571, 18-carat reached EGP 4,929, 14-carat stood at EGP 3,834, and the gold pound stabilized at EGP 46,000.
The report noted that the yellow metal lost around EGP 80 on Friday alone, as 21-carat gold fell from EGP 5,820 to EGP 5,740.
Imbabi added that gold continues to follow an upward trajectory since the start of the year, having gained 54% locally and 62% globally, marking its best weekly performance since the 2008 Lehman Brothers crisis.
He explained that prices temporarily dipped below $4,200, before rebounding amid signs of easing between Beijing and Washington, stressing that the broader market trend remains bullish.
Market Drivers
Imbabi attributed the latest surge to global economic uncertainty stemming from volatile U.S. policies, noting that the Federal Reserve has begun retreating from its tight-monetary stance, while President Trump’s policies have fueled inflation.
He added that the U.S. government shutdown in early October, due to Congress’s budget deadlock, further deepened economic anxiety, alongside the ongoing trade war with China.
These factors, the report said, prompted central banks and institutional investors to expand their gold purchases as a safe-haven asset, intensifying speculative activity and increasing inflows into gold ETFs, pushing prices to unprecedented highs.
Global Market Outlook
Imbabi expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged for now, emphasizing that continued price gains hinge on the course of U.S. monetary policy.
He cited Goldman Sachs projections that the ounce could hit $4,900 by December 2026, forecasting a medium- to long-term uptrend, though short-term corrections remain possible.
He cautioned that any new rate hikes or a de-escalation in geopolitical tensions could weigh on prices, while U.S. fiscal and trade policies will remain the dominant market drivers.
Pressure on the Precious Metal
The report highlighted that the strong U.S. dollar and higher Treasury yields added downward pressure on gold, with the 10-year yield climbing to 4.01%, and real yields steady at 1.72%.
A temporary decline in safe-haven demand also followed Trump’s remarks affirming the persistence of tariffs, which boosted global risk appetite.
The two leaders, Trump and Xi Jinping, are expected to meet in South Korea within two weeks to discuss the future of the bilateral trade agreement.
Future Expectations
The report noted that several Fed officials—including Alberto Musalem, Christopher Waller, and Neel Kashkari—expressed support for rate cuts at the upcoming October meeting, while maintaining the 2% inflation target.
Markets are pricing in two additional 25-basis-point cuts in October and December.
Traders are also awaiting the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due Friday, which could influence the Fed’s next decisions.
According to global banks, HSBC has raised its average 2025 gold forecast to $3,455/oz, projecting it could reach $5,000 in the first half of 2026, while Standard Chartered expects an average of $4,488 next year.
Despite minor pullbacks, the report concludes that gold’s overall trend remains bullish, supported by geopolitical tensions and strong central-bank and institutional buying, making the yellow metal the most attractive safe-haven asset at present.
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