Gold Extends Gains Locally and Globally Amid Fed Caution and Geopolitical Tensions

Gold prices rose in the local market and on global exchanges during Thursday’s trading, as investors assessed the outcome of the latest meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve, which carried a cautious, hawkish tone, while geopolitical tensions remained elevated, according to a report issued by the iSagha platform.

Saeed Embabi, CEO of iSagha, said that 21-karat gold climbed by around EGP 100 to EGP 6,710 per gram. Meanwhile, the global ounce price increased by about $8 to reach $4,989.

The 24-karat gram recorded EGP 7,669, 18-karat gold reached EGP 5,751, and the gold pound stood at approximately EGP 53,680.

The report noted that domestic prices posted a more pronounced increase than global markets, driven by strong local demand, as investors continue to monitor the trajectory of U.S. monetary policy.

Global Gold Movements

At the time of writing, gold (XAU/USD) was trading near $4,975 after touching an intraday high of around $5,021. Strong U.S. economic data helped lift the U.S. dollar to its highest level in nearly a month, exerting mild pressure on the precious metal.

Initial jobless claims fell to 206,000 for the week ending February 14, well below expectations of 225,000 and down from the previous reading of 229,000.

At the same time, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index rose to 16.3 in February, exceeding expectations of 8.5 and improving from 12.6 in January.

Although the headline reading was stronger than forecast, several components showed moderation. The new orders index declined to 11.7 from 14.4, and the shipments index dropped sharply to 0.3 from 9.5. The employment index turned negative at -1.3 compared to 9.7 in January. Price pressures eased, with the prices paid index falling to 38.9 from 46.9.

Housing Market Under Pressure

Data from the National Association of Realtors showed that the Pending Home Sales Index declined by 0.8% in January, compared to expectations for a 1.3% increase. On an annual basis, pending sales fell by 0.4%, versus forecasts of a 2.4% rise.

Economists closely monitor pending home sales as a leading indicator of existing home sales, since contracts are typically signed months before transactions are finalized. The housing market continues to seek stabilization after two years of weakness driven by high prices and elevated mortgage rates.

Fed Maintains Cautious Stance

Minutes from the January meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) indicated that policymakers prefer to keep interest rates unchanged in the near term while assessing incoming data, leaving the door open to further rate hikes if inflation remains above target. Some members, however, suggested that rate cuts could become appropriate later if inflation eases in line with expectations.

This stance continues to support the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, limiting gold’s upside as a non-yielding asset. Nevertheless, markets still anticipate that the Federal Reserve could resume monetary easing in the second half of the year.

Geopolitical Risks Provide Support

Geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran remain elevated despite recent high-level talks. Media reports indicated that the U.S. military is preparing for potential strikes on Iran, pending a final decision by President Donald Trump.

Against this backdrop, the broader trend for gold remains tilted to the upside. Any pullbacks are likely to attract buying interest, supported by institutional and investment demand.

Markets are now focusing on Friday’s key data releases, including the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the preliminary estimate of U.S. fourth-quarter GDP, both of which could significantly influence monetary policy expectations and gold price direction.