Gold closes 2025 with historic gains exceeding 70% and global stability during year-end holidays

Gold prices recorded a slight increase in the local market, while prices stabilized on global exchanges, in tandem with the Christmas holidays and lower liquidity. This comes after an exceptional year in which the precious metal achieved gains of more than 70%, supported by macroeconomic factors and escalating geopolitical tensions, according to a report by the Ai Sagha platform.

Saeed Imbaby, Executive Director of Ai Sagha, said that gold prices in the local market rose by around EGP 5, with the price of 21-karat gold reaching approximately EGP 5,970 per gram. Meanwhile, global spot prices stabilized near $4,480 per ounce, after briefly touching a record high of $4,526.

He added that the price of 24-karat gold reached about EGP 6,823 per gram, while 18-karat gold stood at around EGP 5,117. The price of the gold pound reached approximately EGP 47,760.

Imbaby explained that the record rally in gold this year has been exceptional by all measures, with gains exceeding 70% since the beginning of the year, bringing the metal close to posting its strongest annual performance since 1979. This surge has been driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid persistent geopolitical risks, global economic uncertainty, and strong institutional and investment inflows.

The report noted that gold also benefited from the weakness of the U.S. dollar and the Federal Reserve’s shift toward monetary easing, after cutting interest rates by a total of 75 basis points during 2025, which enhanced the appeal of non-yielding assets.

In the Egyptian market, local prices showed clear sensitivity to global fluctuations and exchange-rate movements. Gold recorded a historic high of EGP 5,990 per gram, despite currently trading below global parity levels, due to pricing based on a dollar rate lower than the official rate. This comes within the context of encouraging selling and profit-taking by citizens, alongside the continued export of raw gold to provide foreign currency and liquidity to the markets.

Globally, gold ended 2025 with a strong quarterly performance, supported by bets on U.S. interest-rate cuts and rising geopolitical tensions, despite fading momentum in year-end sessions due to the holiday period. Investors continued to seek gold as a hedge amid growing risks in several regions, including the Middle East and parts of Latin America, helping to maintain steady demand even as traders took profits above the $4,500-per-ounce level.

Global prices briefly surpassed $4,500 per ounce, supported by the convergence of rate-cut expectations and safe-haven inflows, before retreating on profit-taking. This move was quickly reflected in local retail prices, as import costs were affected by movements in the U.S. dollar.

Despite relatively subdued activity toward the end of the year, gold prices remain elevated compared with previous years. Most forecasts point to gold continuing to trade at strong levels in 2026, particularly if global interest-rate-cut expectations are confirmed and market disruptions persist.

On the economic data front, the preliminary estimate of U.S. gross domestic product for the third quarter showed annualized growth of 4.3%, exceeding previous estimates and market expectations, despite delays in data releases due to the government shutdown. However, these positive figures contrasted with other U.S. indicators, including a 2.2% decline in durable goods orders, a 0.1% drop in industrial production, and a fall in the consumer confidence index to 89.1 points in December, keeping pressure on the U.S. dollar.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the currency’s performance against a basket of major peers, is trading near 97.87 points, its lowest level since early October, amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, with prospects of a return to monetary easing later next year.

Geopolitical tensions—including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, ongoing instability in the Middle East, and rising tensions between the United States and Venezuela—continue to play a key role in supporting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Overall, the outlook for gold remains positive heading into 2026, amid continued pressure on the U.S. dollar and expectations of further interest-rate cuts. Data from the World Gold Council for the third quarter of 2025 also confirm continued strong central-bank purchases, totaling an additional 280 tons, providing a solid demand base for the market.

Accordingly, analysts believe that any notable pullbacks in gold prices in the coming period may represent attractive buying opportunities within the broader bullish trend of the precious metal.