Gold is currently attempting once again to surpass the $4,000 per ounce level. However, analysts at ING Bank believe the recent weakness remains a natural part of a consolidation and correction phase, emphasizing that the fundamental drivers of gold remain solid.
In its latest monthly update, ING forecasts that gold prices will average around $4,000 per ounce in Q4 2025, rising to approximately $4,100 in Q1 2026. The bank attributes these projections to continued strong central bank demand, gold’s safe-haven role, and a likely rebound in ETF inflows as the U.S. Federal Reserve continues its rate-cutting cycle.
Healthy Correction, Not a Trend Reversal
ING describes the latest pullback — following gold’s record highs last month — as a healthy and necessary market correction, rather than a change in the overall uptrend.
Despite the retracement, gold remains significantly higher year-to-date, reinforcing the view that this move merely reflects profit-taking and position adjustments.
With persistent geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty, gold continues to attract both institutional and retail investors seeking protection. ING notes that the current phase may involve price fluctuations, but the underlying fundamentals remain intact.
Interest Rates and ETF Flows
Analysts highlight U.S. interest rate expectations as the most influential short-term factor.
Recent comments by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, suggesting that a December rate cut is not guaranteed, have temporarily cooled gold’s upward momentum.
Nevertheless, CME FedWatch data indicates that markets still expect a sustained rate-cut cycle — meaning, according to ING, that the opportunity cost of holding gold will keep falling, likely encouraging renewed inflows into gold-backed ETFs.
In Q3 2025, these expectations already led to a notable increase in investment demand. According to the World Gold Council, global ETF holdings rose by 222 tonnes between July and September. Meanwhile, physical investment in bars and coins remained robust, suggesting that investors took advantage of recent dips to expand their holdings.
Central Banks: The Cornerstone of Steady Demand
ING stresses that central bank demand remains one of the key pillars supporting the market.
After two quarters of slower activity, central banks returned to strong net buying in Q3, with purchases reaching around 220 tonnes — up 28% from the previous quarter and 6% above the five-year average.
Notably, new players have joined traditional buyers:
The Bank of Korea is considering its first gold reserve expansion since 2013,
While Serbia’s president announced plans to nearly double the country’s gold reserves by 2030.
ING interprets this as a structural shift in reserve management, with gold gaining prominence as a neutral and highly liquid reserve asset.
Outlook for the Coming Period
ING expects a mixed but broadly supportive outlook for gold in the coming months:
Central bank purchases continue to provide a firm price floor,
Physical demand from the jewelry and bullion sectors remains strong,
And continued Fed rate cuts could revive ETF investment flows.
Accordingly, the bank reiterates its projection of $4,000 per ounce in Q4 2025 and $4,100 in Q1 2026.
Key Short-Term Drivers
ING believes near-term direction will depend largely on upcoming Fed communications, U.S. labor market data, and the dollar’s performance.
While a stronger dollar could temporarily weigh on prices, ING maintains that falling real yields and sustained central bank buying will keep gold on a positive medium-term trajectory.
Despite temporary challenges in breaking decisively above $4,000, ING concludes that the bullish narrative for gold remains intact. The bank sees current declines as part of a healthy accumulation phase, underpinned by central bank demand, solid physical buying, and potential ETF inflows — forming a strong base for further price gains as 2025 draws to a close and 2026 begins.
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