Global Covid-19 Surge, Op-ed

With surges accelerating in the United States and Europe, the global COVID-19 cases total passed 46 million with a record (yesterday) single-day high as the World Health Organization (WHO) reports, 505,756 new cases so far.

There have been at least 9,329,006 cases of coronavirus in the United States and at least 235,358 people have died there from coronavirus, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

Seven other countries in the world have reported more than 1 million total Covid-19 cases. India has more than 8 million total cases and Brazil has more than 5 million total cases. Russia, France, Spain, Argentina and Colombia have more than 1 million total cases.

A Third Wave of Covid-19 in the U.S

Coronavirus cases are climbing at an alarming rate in the U.S., raising fears that parts of the country are in a third wave of Covid-19.

The US reported 101,461 new Covid-19 cases on Friday - the highest single day number of cases recorded for any country. The top five records in daily cases all occurred within eight days, and the upward trend may push hospitals past capacity.

This is the fastest the United States has added one million new cases since the pandemic began. Johns Hopkins recorded the first case of coronavirus in the United States on Jan. 21, 98 days later, on April 28, the US hit 1 million cases , 44 days later, on June 11, the US hit 2 million cases, 27 days later, on July 8, the US hit 3 million cases, 15 days later, on July 23, the US hit 4 million cases, 17 days later, on Aug. 9, the US hit 5 million cases, 22 days later, on Aug. 31, the US hit 6 million cases, 25 days later, on Sept. 25, the US hit 7 million cases, 21 days later on Oct. 16, the US hit 8 million cases, 14 days later and today, the US hit 9 million cases.

Hospitals could become overwhelmed as the number of coronavirus cases continues to climb. Fourteen states and one US territory reported record high hospitalizations Friday. Those states and territories are: Alaska, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming, and Guam. The fall/winter surge should lead to a daily death toll that is approximately three times higher than now by mid-January.

The nation recorded a million cases in a mere 14 days, between October 16 and 30. Cases haven’t escalated at that pace since late July, when the pandemic spiked across the South and Southwest. Now, the spikes are everywhere. Cases rates are high and rising in 40 states and territories.

As of late October, at least three of every four ICU beds are occupied in 21 states. Hospitals are overrun, especially in the Midwest.

This autumn bout will likely be harder to manage, as the pestilence flourishes in rural areas where access to emergency care has been declining for years. Rural areas have higher rates of the underlying conditions and behaviours—smoking, high blood pressure, and obesity—that tend to lead to worse outcomes with COVID-19. At the current pace, America could reach 300,000 deaths before the new year.

Europe’s Second Covid-19 Wave

Europe is closing all over -- it's the smart thing to do when the virus gets out of control. Europe has recorded 7, 162, 575 cases confirmed Covid-19 infections and 131,099 deaths after a dip in new cases during June-August, Europe is now reporting a far higher number of cases than during its previous peak.

In the months of March, April and May, Europe as a whole reported between 35,000 and 38,000 Covid-19 cases every day, at its peak. For most of June, July, and even August, Europe reported less than 20,000 cases a day.

In the last one month, however, there has been a dramatic rise in cases in Europe. The second wave of infections in Europe is far worse than the first.

While there could be a variety of reasons behind this renewed surge in Europe and the US, experts point to two possible broad factors: a general lowering of guard after the numbers began to dip in the summer, and the drop in temperature that would be pushing most activities indoors. The cold, dry weather could also be helping the virus survive longer and remain potent.

Europe does seem to have got a bit relaxed in June and July, once the numbers began to come down. People started travelling extensively, even for leisure. And this has contributed to the surge that we are seeing now. This is what we need to learn about this disease, and need to guard against. The virus has not gone anywhere, even when the numbers decline.

As the temperatures go down, more and more people remain indoors. Transmission of the virus becomes much more effective in these settings. So, while the virus was always present, the effectiveness of transmission is likely to have increased when people interact mostly in closed spaces. The probability of infection increases during interactions in closed spaces.

A New strain

A new study, suggests that travel within Europe, particularly Spain, could be spreading the virus. Spain, received 2.5 million visitors in July, after practically no international tourists in March, April and May.

A new variant of the virus, first detected amongst people in Spain in July, has now spread through many countries in the region. Named 20A.EU1, this variant is particularly prevalent in the UK, Switzerland, the Netherlands, France and Norway.

It accounts for the majority of the recent infections in Europe, and was dispersed across Europe by travellers to and from Spain.

However, there was no direct evidence to suggest that this new variant spread faster than others, or that it resulted in more serious disease. In effect, while the new variant is becoming dominant, it is not yet clear whether it is also leading to the rapid rise in numbers.

France Enters 2nd National Lockdown

France on Friday (Oct 30) reported 49,215 new confirmed coronavirus cases over the past 24 hours, compared to 47,637 on Thursday and a record high of 52,010 on Sunday.

France entered a new national lockdown on Friday 30 October. People are allowed to leave their home only to go to work (if they cannot work from home), to buy essential goods, seek medical help or to exercise for one hour a day. Everyone found outside has to carry a written statement justifying their journey, as happened in the first lockdown in March.

All non-essential shops, restaurants and bars are shut, but schools will remain open. Social gatherings are banned. The rules will be in place until at least 1 December.

The number of people in France who have died from COVID-19 rose by 256 over 24 hours to 36,565. The cumulative number of cases now stands at 1,331,984. President Emmanuel Macron said late on Wednesday that France might start to ease back lockdown measures once COVID infections fell back to about 5,000 per day.

Tips to Prevent Deadly Second Wave of Coronavirus

Keep your distance. The risk of infection increases the closer you are to another person with the virus and the amount of time you spend in close contact: you are very unlikely to be infected if you walk past another person in the street. Try to keep 2m away from people and not be too close to people for more than a short amount of time, as much as you can.

Wash your hands. Keep your hands and face as clean as possible. If soap and water are not readily available, use a hand sanitiser that contains at least 60 per cent alcohol. Cover all surfaces of your hands and rub them together until they feel dry. Avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth with unwashed hands.

Mask up. If you can, wear a face covering in an enclosed space where social distancing isn’t possible and where you will come into contact with people you do not normally meet. This is most relevant for short periods indoors in crowded areas, for example on public transport or in some shops.

It is important to use face coverings properly and wash your hands before putting them on and taking them off. You can make face coverings at home; the key thing is it should cover your mouth and nose.

Avoid crowds. You can lower the risks of transmission by reducing the number of people you come into close contact with, so avoid peak travel times on public transport where possible. Businesses should take reasonable steps to avoid people being gathered together, for example by allowing the use of more entrances and exits and staggering entry and exit where possible.

Wash your clothes regularly. There is some evidence that the virus can stay on fabrics for a few days, although usually it is shorter, so if you are working with people outside your household wash your clothes regularly.

Changing clothes in workplaces should only normally be considered where there is a high risk of infection or there are highly vulnerable people, such as in a care home.If you need to change your clothes avoid crowding into a changing room.

Avoid rush hour. Try to walk or cycle wherever possible. If you have to use public transport, you should try and avoid peak times.

Stay home if you get symptoms. If you are the first person in your household to develop symptoms of coronavirus you must stay at home for ten days. However, for all other household members who remain well they must stay at home and not leave the house for 14 days. The 14 day period starts from the day when the first person in the house became ill.