Future Scenarios, Op-ed

Admiral Joseph Nye, is one of the pillars of political and strategic science in the United States and is affiliated with the prestigious Harvard University. He is the author of an important reference book issued in the late 1980s which he called "Soft Power: Meaning of Success in International Politics" ...

In his recent article in Project Syndicate entitled: Post-Pandemic Geopolitics, the American thinker and strategist mentions that the long-term impact estimates of the current pandemic are not accurate; adding that there is no single future vision that is certain to occur until the year (2030), and instead predicts the possibility of Five possible scenarios as follows:

1- The end of the global liberal system.

2- Authoritarian despotism similar to the 1930s.

3- A global system dominated by China.

4- A green international agenda.

5- Continuation of the current situation. Cooperating with China on specific issues such as (pandemic change, climate change) and at the same time, continuing competition on other issues such as (freedom of navigation in the South China Sea). 

He stresses that the rapid development of effective vaccines will enhance the continuity of competition and reduce the likelihood of Chinese authoritarian scenarios. He concludes that the Covid-19 pandemic may result in important local changes related to health care and education ...

These general and important scenarios that Mr. Nye talked about in the field of new geopolitics post the pandemic, in my view, need to be explained and further corrected ... 

What happens is that the new international environment has become more blurred, complex and ambiguous than ever before. Power in the old conception will not have any meaning, as wars in the form of electronic attacks or the deployment of invisible viral weapons of unknown source is enough to eliminate everything.

Some powerful countries such as the United States will no longer have the same economic, military, protective, and even cultural deterrence, as it was in the past. Bipolarity or unipolarity, as well, will not return to the same meaning with the rise of the economies of Asian countries and other economies, the expansion of the global financial crisis and global trade competition, the growth of global crime and the globalization of services and the growing role of inpiduals in future international relations.

This is on the one hand; On the other hand, China, and then Russia, will emerge in light of this complex international environment, in the form of two self-confident powers that may use smart weapons never used before in international relations...

And we remember how electronic interventions can greatly affect the course of political processes in the most powerful democracies. For years, Russian strategists have been well aware of the concept of the strategic environment, which is referred to in the literature of the American War College as “a world order full of many suspicious threats, and the conflict is inherent and unpredictable. In this world, our capabilities to defend and advance our national interests are limited by restrictions related to the amount of material and human resources. In short, this environment is characterized by volatility, apprehension, complexity, and ambiguity.”

Then there is no doubt that the novel coronavirus pandemic may result in a relative decline for the United States over the coming years, especially as it dealt stupidly with the pandemic, which led to a significant decline in its prestige.

All this may lead to the continuing erosion of the liberal world order and the return of fascism in some parts of the world. But this will not prevent a rebirth of liberal democracy.

Large crises can sometimes lead to unpredictable results. The 1920s Great Depression led to the resurgence of isolationism, nationalism, and fascism, and later, the outbreak of World War II. However, that recession inevitably resulted in the launch of economic programs in America known as the "New Deal," the emergence of the United States as a global superpower, and the eventual decolonization. The attacks of September 11, 2001 on New York and Washington caused unsuccessful American interventions ...

Finally, if we accept that a more realistic international green agenda will be adopted, then we will witness the escalation of nationalist tones in many countries, which will lead to a possible exacerbation of the international conflicts. The leaders may see the conflicts with foreign sides as a way to distract the focus on domestic problems, or could seize the weakness of their opponents, or their preoccupation with the pandemic, to destabilize those they target, or to create a new reality on the ground.