Four Years On: A War Meant to Break Ukraine Is Breaking Russia Instead

The war between Russia and Ukraine has now entered its fifth year. When the first missiles struck in February 2022, many people believed the conflict would be short. Instead, it has become a long and exhausting war that is changing Europe — and harming the country that started it even more than the country it tried to defeat.

When Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the invasion, he expected a quick victory. The plan was to capture Kyiv within days, destroy Ukraine’s ability to resist, and restore Russia’s image as a global superpower. Russian officials spoke confidently about fast advances and the collapse of Ukrainian defenses.

But events unfolded very differently. Ukrainian forces resisted much more strongly than Moscow expected. The quick assault turned into a long war that continues to drain Russia’s military strength, economy, and international influence.

Russia still keeps more than 700,000 troops in and around Ukraine. However, it struggles to increase this number. Ukrainian defenders eliminate about a thousand invading soldiers every day. This means Russia loses more troops each month than it can replace. According to Ukrainian defense sources, total Russian losses have approached 1.2 million killed and wounded. In December 2025 alone, around 35,000 Russian troops were lost, followed by another 30,000 in January. On average, Russia loses 156 soldiers for every kilometer of Ukrainian land it captures.

Losses in military equipment are also heavy. Large numbers of tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery systems have been destroyed. Russian factories cannot fully replace what is lost on the battlefield. As a result, Moscow increasingly relies on foreign fighters and outside suppliers.

Just as important is what Russia has failed to achieve. The Ukrainian front has not collapsed. Defensive lines continue to hold despite constant attacks. Years into the war, Moscow still cannot deliver the decisive victory it once promised its citizens.

The war is hurting Russia beyond the battlefield. Military spending and international sanctions have hit the Russian economy hard. Money from oil and gas, which usually fills the state budget, have dropped sharply by 24-49%. The budget deficit has reached 8, 291 trillion rubles. Financial reserves are shrinking, industries are under pressure, and long-term economic growth is slowing because Russia is cut off from some new technologies.

Inside Russia, the war has changed life. The country has become far more closed and repressive. Censorship has increased, criticism of the war is punished, and security agencies now have greater powers. The government promotes the idea of a “fortress under siege,” saying strict control is necessary to defend the country.

Access to information is also increasingly restricted. Many international digital platforms are blocked. Independent media face severe limits, and schools and cultural institutions operate under tight state supervision.

Millions of Russians have left the country to avoid military service or political pressure. Many of those leaving are young professionals and skilled workers. Along with the large number of dead and wounded soldiers, this creates serious population and labor problems that could affect Russia for decades.

Russia is also more isolated internationally than it has been since the Cold War ended. Many Western markets are closed to Russian goods. Russia is cut off from major financial and tech networks. Its relationships with Europe and North America are weaker, and its influence in world affairs has dropped.

In nearby regions, Russia’s influence has also fallen. Many former partner countries are building stronger ties with other global powers.

Ukraine, on the other hand, continues to get strong international support. Western countries provide money, weapons, and humanitarian help. Sanctions against Russia stay in place and are regularly expanded.

European countries have improved their security cooperation and increased defense spending. NATO has grown, with Finland and Sweden joining.

As pressure builds, Russia depends more on a small group of partners who mainly want its raw materials, weapons, and limited market for goods.

Ukraine has survived. It has defended its independence, strengthened national unity, and built one of the most skilled armies in the world. The country that many thought would fall quickly has shown great strength.

The longer the war goes on, the clearer it becomes: what was meant to show Russia’s strength has instead created growing military, economic, and political losses for Moscow.

Five years after the invasion began, one thing is clear: the war meant to break Ukraine is steadily weakening Russia itself.