Former NATO official to See: Trump is unpredictable and will force Ukraine to end war

Sada Elbalad English website interviewed Jimmy Shea, a former NATO official, and asked him several questions, and the answers were as follows:

 - Can U.S. support for NATO stop during Trump’s term?

The former NATO official emphasized the unpredictability of Trump, making it hard to forecast his actions. While Trump criticized NATO during his first term, he ultimately remained within the alliance, claiming he strengthened it by urging European nations to increase their defense spending. He also redirected NATO's focus toward the strategic challenge posed by China, a priority for him. Trump's preference for transactional bilateral relations over multilateral organizations complicates NATO's situation, as he may not view it as beneficial to U.S. interests. There's hope that his advisers will dissuade him from taking drastic actions, such as withdrawing from NATO, particularly as many allies are now meeting their defense spending commitments, which could alleviate some of Trump's concerns about U.S. financial contributions. However, the official noted a decrease in NATO support among Republicans in Congress and a lack of foreign policy veterans in Trump's cabinet, raising concerns about the U.S.'s long-term commitment to NATO.

- What are the biggest concerns that NATO might face during the Trump era?

The official pointed out that Ukraine is a significant concern. Trump might cut military support for Ukraine, potentially leaving European nations to manage the fallout. There's uncertainty about whether Trump would leverage pressure on Russia's Putin to negotiate a lasting peace. Such a fragile peace could thrust Europe into a complex position of providing security guarantees for Ukraine while addressing reconstruction costs. A reduced U.S. military footprint in Europe could mean a real risk of Russia becoming a more formidable threat. The core worry is a potential decline in U.S. commitment and investment in NATO's collective security infrastructure, rather than an outright withdrawal.

- Could the U.S. withdraw from NATO due to European nations not meeting their financial commitments?

Trump may leverage this threat to push European allies to increase their defense budgets, a tactic he employed during his first term. He has previously stated that the U.S. would only defend allies who commit 2% of their GDP to defense. This demand shifts pressure onto European nations. Interestingly, many European leaders are now advocating for higher spending, spurred by a precarious security landscape. Countries like Poland and Lithuania are aiming for defense budgets of 4% and 5-6%, respectively. Meanwhile, European officials have raised alarms about the looming possibility of conflict between Russia and NATO. The call for a "war mentality" in Europe underscores the urgent need for increased military readiness, leading to expectations that NATO's summit in The Hague may set new budgetary targets for member states at around 3% or 3.5% of GDP. Whether this will satisfy Trump remains uncertain.