Egyptian Foreign Policy :Between Strategic Balance & Defensive Realist Approach

Considering the accelerating transformations in the structure of the international system in 2025, Egyptian foreign policy can be understood as a conscious, cumulative approach, grounded in a gradual strategic logic based on a precise reading of power balances, risk boundaries, and available margins of maneuver. 

From an international relations perspective, defensive realism remains one of the most suitable frameworks for interpreting this behavior, as it is rooted in the assumption of an anarchic international system and posits that the state’s central objective is not the maximization of power, but rather the maximization of security and the preservation of strategic autonomy.

Within this framework, Egypt does not pursue isolationist policies or sharp alignments. Instead, it tends toward calibrated balancing, aimed at reducing sources of threat and avoiding politically or militarily costly adventures. 

This approach reflects an institutional awareness that excessive alignment or dependence on a single axis may erode strategic maneuverability rather than enhance national security. Accordingly, Egypt’s foreign policy moves in 2025 can be understood as an extension of a cumulative trajectory that has evolved over years, one based on managing international interactions rather than dissolving into them.

In this context, the concept of strategic insertion, in its broader sense, becomes particularly salient. It refers to the ability to generate tangible strategic impact through non-confrontational tools and at relatively low cost. 

This concept is not associated with the use of force, but rather with the effective deployment of diplomacy, political economy, mediation, and the construction of balanced networks of relations. Strategic insertion, therefore, implies achieving security and political gains without direct confrontation or zero-sum alliances that constrain decision-making autonomy.

This notion intersects directly with the concept of strategic balance, which constitutes one of the governing pillars of Egyptian foreign policy in 2025.

Strategic balance does not imply passive neutrality or disengagement; rather, it denotes calculated engagement with competing powers and the distribution of strategic options in a manner that prevents Egypt from becoming an arena of rivalry or an instrument in others’ conflicts. 

In this sense, strategic balance differs from traditional neutrality in that it represents an active policy based on managing relationships, not freezing them.

From a theoretical perspective, strategic balance is closely linked to defensive realism, which holds that security is best maximized through diversified partnerships and the avoidance of excessive dependence on any single actor. This balance rests on three main pillars. 

The first is the multiplicity of tracks in foreign relations, ensuring that foreign policy is not reduced to a single dimension, but rather encompasses political, diplomatic, security, and broader economic dimensions. The second is decision-making flexibility, allowing for the adjustment of positions in response to shifts in the international environment without compromising core principles. 

The third is the maximization of shared interests with various partners, while strictly safeguarding national sovereignty and avoiding structural concessions.

When this framework is applied to Egyptian foreign policy in 2025, it becomes evident that Egypt has adopted strategic balance as a long-term structural choice, rather than a temporary tactical maneuver. 

At the international level, Egypt has maintained its strategic partnership with the United States, while simultaneously deepening its relations with Russia, China, and the European Union, without becoming embedded in competing blocs. 

This balanced pattern has enabled Egypt to benefit from emerging multipolarity, reduce the cost of political pressure, and preserve a degree of independence in decision-making.

Regionally, strategic balance has been reflected in Egypt’s management of its complex relations in the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean. Egypt has combined active diplomatic engagement with the preservation of clear red lines related to national security, while favoring mediation and de-escalation over escalation. 

Egypt has thus emerged as a regional actor focused on managing crises rather than exacerbating them, whether through direct diplomatic channels or multilateral frameworks.

Within this context, Egyptian behavior can be viewed as a model of what defensive realism describes as risk management rather than gain maximization. 

Egypt doesn’t seek to impose new realities through force, but rather to stabilize a less hostile regional environment that allows it to prioritize domestic objectives and enhance resilience in the face of recurring geopolitical shocks.

An important implication of Egypt’s strategic balance and defensive realist foreign policy in 2025 has been its reinforced position both within the international and regional systems and on the economic-commercial front. On the geopolitical level, Egypt has navigated highly sensitive crises such as the situations in Gaza, Lebanon, and Libya by adopting a role that blends diplomatic engagement with measured restraint. 

Rather than aligning unequivocally with any single major power bloc, Cairo has positioned itself as a mediator and stabilizing actor capable of interacting with a wide range of regional and global actors. 

In the Gaza context, this has involved sustained diplomatic outreach, communications with parties to the conflict, and coordination with international partners to reduce escalation, while maintaining Egypt’s core security interests and sovereign decision-making.

Similar patterns of active dialogue and conflict management characterized Egypt’s engagement on the Lebanese and Libyan files, where it aimed to mitigate spillovers and promote negotiated solutions without deep military involvement or overt alignment with external sponsors of the conflicts. 

This approach has enhanced Egypt’s status as a pragmatic and autonomous regional actor in an increasingly fragmented international environment.

On the economic front, the strategic balance has translated into diversified trade partnerships and growth in key bilateral exchanges. 

In 2025, the trade volume between Egypt and Russia increased significantly, marking about $6.4 billion, reflecting an approximately 12% rise, indicative of deepening economic engagement despite broader geopolitical tensions.

Meanwhile, Egypt’s trade relations with the European Union have sustained their importance: total trade with the EU was around $21.4 billion in the first eight months of 2025, underscoring the EU’s role as one of Egypt’s largest commercial partners. 

 This economic diversification reinforces Cairo’s diplomatic strategy by reducing dependency on any single economic bloc and enhancing resilience against external shocks. 

By strengthening economic ties with both Eastern and Western partners, Egypt can leverage its geostrategic location and market potential to sustain economic stability, attract investment, and augment its influence within a multipolar global economy.

In brief, Egyptian foreign policy in 2025 reveals a coherent cumulative pattern grounded in strategic balance and non-military strategic insertion as central tools for maximizing security and minimizing risks. 

This pattern reflects a deep awareness of the complexities of the international system and underscores that achieving stability does not necessarily require alignment or confrontation, but rather the effective management of interactions and the intelligent use of diplomatic and political instruments in a highly volatile global environment.