Egypt Warns of "Unilateral" Ethiopian Nile Dam Operations as Flood Levels Rise Above Average

Egypt’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation has voiced strong concern over what it described as “unilateral actions” by Ethiopia in managing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), warning that recent operational decisions have disrupted the natural flow of the Nile and triggered damaging floods downstream in Sudan.

In a statement released on Friday, the ministry said it is closely monitoring this year’s Nile flood, which it described as 25% higher than the long-term average but still lower than the exceptionally high levels recorded in 2024. The Nile’s three main tributaries, the White Nile, the Blue Nile, and the Atbara River, all contribute to the annual flood that peaks between July and October.

According to the statement, Ethiopian operators of the GERD violated established hydrological norms by rapidly storing larger-than-expected volumes of water while significantly reducing downstream discharges, from around 280 million cubic meters per day to just 110 million cubic meters on September 8, 2025. 

The ministry said these actions were aimed at achieving a specific reservoir level of 640 meters above sea level, coinciding with Ethiopia’s official ceremony to inaugurate the dam on September 9, which Egypt described as a “political spectacle.”

The ministry alleged that following the celebration, the Ethiopian operators abruptly released massive quantities of water, 485 million cubic meters on September 10, escalating to 780 million cubic meters by September 27 before dropping again to 380 million cubic meters three days later. 

These erratic releases, it said, caused the dam’s level to fall by roughly one meter, equivalent to the sudden discharge of nearly two billion cubic meters of stored water.

Egyptian officials said the uncoordinated discharges combined with delayed rainfall in Sudan and higher-than-normal White Nile inflows led to unexpected surges in river levels, inundating farmland and villages in parts of Sudan. The ministry called this an “artificially induced flood” that deviated from the natural seasonal pattern, which typically peaks in August.

Citing data from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the statement noted that the floods inflicted severe losses in Sudan, accusing Ethiopia of creating an unnecessary humanitarian crisis.

“This reckless and politically motivated management of a dam that stores 74 billion cubic meters of water, without a binding legal framework or coordination with downstream countries, represents a continuous and serious threat to the lives and security of Egypt and Sudan,” the ministry warned.

The statement said Egypt has been proactively managing its water resources using real-time monitoring, satellite data, and advanced hydrological modeling to balance irrigation, power generation, and flood control. The High Aswan Dam, it added, remains the “fundamental safeguard” ensuring Egypt’s protection against volatile Nile conditions.

In anticipation of potential flooding, Egyptian authorities had notified provincial governors on September 7 to warn citizens living on riverbank lands, many of which are considered illegal encroachments, to take precautions. The ministry clarified that reports on social media about “flooded provinces” were “false and misleading,” emphasizing that only parts of the river’s natural floodplain, known as Tarh al-Nahr lands, were affected.

“These areas are part of the river’s natural path and have always been prone to submersion during high-water events,” the statement said, reiterating that illegal construction and farming on these lands exacerbate the impact of rising water levels.

The ministry concluded by assuring citizens that Egypt’s water management remains efficient and stable, and that all relevant government agencies are coordinating around the clock to protect lives and property.

“Egypt reaffirms that unilateral and irresponsible actions in operating the Ethiopian dam threaten regional stability and must cease,” the statement said. “A legally binding agreement remains the only guarantee for the fair and safe use of the Nile’s waters.”