Egypt Targets Public Debt-to-GDP Ratio of 55% by 2050 UN Economic Plan

Egypt has set an ambitious target to reduce its public debt-to-GDP ratio to 55% by 2050 as part of its National Economic Narrative, which outlines long-term scenarios for growth, debt management, and trade balance improvements.

According to the framework, three scenarios have been projected for the debt-to-GDP ratio by 2030: a reform-driven scenario at 70%, a conservative path at 85%, and a baseline scenario without reforms at 80%.

The government aims to lift economic growth to 8% by 2050 under the reform scenario, with growth projected at around 7% by 2030 compared to 6% in the baseline case. The plan also prioritizes enhancing debt management efficiency to achieve fiscal sustainability.

On trade, the strategy targets a significant reduction in Egypt’s trade deficit. Under the accelerated reforms scenario, the deficit is expected to narrow to $14.9 bn by 2030—48% lower than the projected $50 bn deficit if current trends persist. By 2050, the country seeks to shift from deficit to a trade surplus of $15 bn.

Officials said the National Economic Narrative is designed to serve as a roadmap for aligning fiscal, monetary, and trade policies with Egypt’s long-term development goals.